As the number of undefeated teams dwindles — there are 16 left in FBS college football — the number of opportunities for them to meet is also dwindling.
These become the regular-season classics that college football is so famous for: one team stays squarely in the national title chase, the other (at best) loses all margin for error. The expansion of the college football playoffs will change that dynamic a bit, but any time teams meet more than a third of the season without a blemish between them, it’s going to get a lot of eyeballs.
There are only 12 chances for two undefeated teams to meet for the rest of the regular season. Three of them are next week, which is shaping up to be a turning point in the Playoff race: Alabama at Tennessee, Penn State at Michigan and Oklahoma State at TCU.
But some of those 12s won’t materialize, with at least one team losing before that – in fact, it’s impossible for the 12s to happen with both teams undefeated.
So cherish those we have. And the only one we KNOW we’ll have comes from the unlikely location of Lawrence, Kansas, where the host Jayhawks already have five wins. That’s as many wins as the past three years combined, and Kansas hasn’t surpassed that total since an 8-5 season in 2008.
On the other side of the ledger is TCU, which beat Oklahoma 55-24 last week, only to find that even bigger games were yet to come. After the Horned Frogs visit Lawrence, they have the aforementioned showdown with Oklahoma State next week.
So that’s TCU-Kansas game of the week on a Saturday bringing us the Texas-Oklahoma and Texas A&M-Alabama games you’ve probably been circling since July.
(Lines of Caesars SportsbookBet Chicago Sports official odds provider, as of Wednesday)
Game of the week
No. 17 TCU (-7) au No. 19 KANSAS, 11 h, FS1 : I’ll settle this sooner: I graduated from Missouri, so I instinctively have to dislike Kansas. I have friends and even family who went to KU who don’t have personal grudges, but man, I love to hate school. The stupid made-up bird mascot that’s still printed way too big all over the place, waving it the joy of wheat that looks like collective rapture and the meaningless Rock Chalk stuff. I hate everything. I love to hate everything.
But I swear that’s not why I choose TCU! I would never let that sort of thing get in the way of a good game record and you have my solemn word that this handicap is objective:
Kansas is lucky to be 5-0. It’s a great story (I hate it, but again, in the spirit of objectivity, it’s great), but the Jayhawks enjoyed a +4 turnover margin in their four games against FBS opponents and won three despite being outclassed. .
Jalon Daniels is a special talent, but Iowa State was able to bottle him quite effectively last week – the problem is that the Cyclones have traveled inside the KU 30-yard line five times and collected only 11 points, thanks to three missed goals.
The Jayhawks are 59th in total offense and 79th in total defense, not a combination that usually screams 5-0. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have scored 38 or more points in all four games, including the 55 points they put on the Sooners last week. Quarterback Max Duggan has a 74.5 percent completion rate with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Daniels will find a way to keep Kansas, but TCU is the better team, and without more chance of rotation and on-court magic (always possible!), the Horned Frogs should win.
The choice : TCU 41, Kansas 28
Best bets
SOUTH FLORIDA at No. 24 CINCINNATI (-27.5), 1:30 p.m., ESPN+: Such large betting spreads are always uncomfortable, but statistically this is a total mismatch.
Looking at yards per play, Cincinnati is No. 5 in defense and No. 24 in offense. South Florida is No. 127 in defense — fifth from bottom — and No. 92 in offense. Drill a little deeper to find that USF allows 5.97 yards per carry, third-to-last in the nation, and UC is No. 3 at 2.39 yards allowed per carry.
This is the point that makes me more comfortable laying the huge gap. If the Bearcats take a big lead, deep cover is unlikely as Cincinnati will continue to practice on the field while South Florida won’t be able to do much offensively.
The choice : Cincinnati 48, South Florida 10
EAST CAROLINA AT TULANE (-3), 2:30 p.m., ESPNU: The Green Wave has had two huge wins this season, winning at Kansas State in a complete stunner, then opening American Athletic Conference play with a big win at Houston.
After the first, they followed it up with a stench of defeat against Southern Miss who just screamed hungover. But it looks like this one will be different. For one thing, these middle schoolers may have learned something from their mistakes the first time around. On the other hand, they have an extra day off since this Houston game took place on a Friday night.
And finally, Tulane — whether Michael Pratt or Justin Ibieta is back at quarterback or whether third string Kai Horton is back after throwing for three touchdowns in Houston — is better than East Carolina, who only played one game on the road and traveled through South Florida. despite giving up 455 yards last week.
The choice : Tulane 35, East Carolina 27
No. 11 UTAH au No. 18 UCLA (+3½), 14h30, Fox : The narrative here from fans who don’t watch a ton of west coast football is that Utah is the most physical team with the best pedigree in the last 10 years and UCLA has a flashy Chip Kelly offense who can’t compete when he gets hit in the mouth.
As Lee Corso sang, “Not so fast, my friends!” The truth is, while Utah has a solid lead in goal defense, UCLA has been better per play, ranking 16th nationally in yards per play allowed while Utah is 29th. On offense, the Bruins have a similar edge: No. 13 in yards per play against the Utes’ No. 26.
The game isn’t that simple of course, and Utah’s schedule has been tougher, but at worst it looks like a fairly even teams clash. And UCLA is home. So you GIVE me 3½ points? I’ll take them on what should be one of the best games of the day.
The choice : UCLA 31, Utah 28
No. 3 OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE (+27), 3 p.m., ABC: This line just keeps going up and up, so if you want to wait until just before kickoff, you could get 28 or more points here. The public seems eager to bet on the explosive Buckeyes.
There’s good reason to love Ohio State here, truth be told: This offense is buzzing on all cylinders, even with a few injuries.
And on the other hand, Michigan State struggled, getting hammered in Washington and at home against Minnesota. It’s possible the Spartans could continue their 11-win season from 2021 by missing a bowling game.
But at a certain point, the gap just gets too high. It’s the Buckeyes’ first game on the road, it’s a tough environment, and if MSU wants to turn things around, competing here would be a good place to start. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Sparty take a shock lead in the first half. Ohio State will probably crush them, then some, but not in a full blast.
The choice : Ohio State 41, Michigan State 24
No. 12 OREGON (-13) at ARIZONA, 8 p.m., Pac-12 Network: If Pac-12 After Dark™ is your thing, this is the game you’ll want to turn to after the kids have gone to bed. Two good offenses, two pretty terrible defenses for a total of 69½ and plenty of potential for chicanery.
The difference for me is that the Ducks have more upside potential. Part of their defensive rating is due to the Georgia wipeout they received in the season opener; you can’t ignore that, of course, but you also can’t ignore that Oregon has been better in its last four games.
Arizona has improved and I’ve been burned by them before this year, but I can’t get past this fact: Oregon, #8 in yards per carry, vs. Arizona, #128 in yards allowed per carry. It’s a recipe for a blast, even on the road.
The choice : Oregon 49, Arizona 26
LAST WEEK: 4-2 direct, 3-3 against the spread
THIS YEAR: 19-11 direct, 16-14 ATS