Should the upcoming mid-term elections result in US Republicans relinquishing control of Congress as survey forecasts suggest, an internally restricted President Donald Trump could turn his attention even more to the world. That shift in focus carries implications for global diplomacy, according to an expert tracking the administration’s trajectory.
The Domestic Stymie and the International Shift
Survey data currently indicate that Democrats are poised to capture a majority in the House of Representatives—along with a potential victory in the Senate, though that contest remains closer—and they would subsequently initiate probes into his presidential conduct. Should Democrats capture Congress, they would launch investigations into Trump’s actions as president.
Historically, administrations in a lame-duck phase tend to concentrate their efforts internationally because domestic avenues are largely blocked. However, Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC who has close ties to the Republican Party, cautions that Trump’s potential foreign focus does not really make for a wholesome agenda. Cooper served in George W Bush’s Pentagon and on his National Security Council.
“Well, first, I think what President Trump is going to do is find someone to blame, and I think there’s a risk that the person he blames is Zelensky,” Cooper told The Detail, noting that Trump is already setting up the Ukrainian president as the scapegoat for high fuel prices in the United States.
Having spent this month in Aotearoa acting as a visiting professor linked to Victoria University’s Centre for Strategic Studies, Cooper raises doubts about what remains for Donald Trump to achieve globally that he hasn’t already tackled. He suggests that pursuits to secure a Nobel Peace Prize could include doing more deals with Russia, and perhaps also North Korea.
Such moves would be a long way from Trump’s “America First” promises. This could mean more actions – military strikes, summits, lifting of sanctions – that are not just unconventional.
Principles Abandoned in Foreign Policy
Beyond immediate geopolitical maneuvers, conservative critics within the party argue that the broader architecture of American foreign policy is suffering damage. Republican foreign policy is founded in a belief in the rule of law to protect liberties.
“Now we have an administration that, I think, is running roughshod over the rule of law to some degree at home, but certainly abroad, right?” Cooper observed, citing actions against Venezuela and Iran.
While acknowledging that New Zealanders have strong views on these sorts of things too, Cooper emphasizes the frustration felt by conservatives watching the president. The overarching strategy relies on using American power while having sort of forgotten the importance of principles in American foreign policy.
“Right now the Republican Party is Donald Trump’s party, and so you know until Donald Trump fades from the scene, I think we’re going to be stuck with this sort of values-less set of foreign policies,” Cooper told The Detail, underscoring that it will be some time before Republicans can get back to those fundamentals.
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