Some argue that the shooting down of the Chinese hot air balloon is not a “fatal blow” to US-China relations and the two countries can choose to turn to a new page.
Sheet Politico President Joe Biden’s order to shoot down a Chinese hot air balloon on February 4 is a blow to the US-China relationship, which has been going downhill for many years. However, this was not necessarily a fatal blow.
The United States and China have experienced much tension over issues in the Taiwan Strait and high-tech espionage. Beijing also accuses the US of having a Cold War mentality and seeking to limit China economically and militarily. But the two countries still seek to improve relations.
Unwanted time
The latest incident – with a string of news stories about Chinese hot air balloons in US airspace and live video of downing them – is making more Americans wary.
“This is a pretty big boost to (public) trust in US-China relations. Chinese espionage has never been central to American public perception,” said Lyle Morris, former director of China at the US Department of Defense.
In the immediate future, Republican (GOP) lawmakers are arguing that President Joe Biden needs to get tougher on China. A senior State Department official also took a hard line on Beijing, calling the balloon incursion a “clear violation of sovereignty” and “unacceptable” at a press conference today. 3/2.
However, the incident will likely only cause further obstacles to bilateral relations, rather than serious damage.
Despite pervasive political rhetoric about limiting economic links, the two countries are interdependent and can hardly choose to drastically downgrade their bilateral relations. Both the Biden administration and senior Chinese officials have recently emphasized the need to improve relations between the two countries.
In addition, historically, other incidents between the US and China that have disturbed relations have eventually faded.
In recent weeks, Beijing has worked to ease tensions with Washington. The Chinese government is preparing to welcome the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. But the visit was postponed after the hot air balloon was discovered.
Politico said that the timing of the incident confused both sides, so China will also have a limited response. In fact, Beijing has expressed a desire to prevent the appearance of hot air balloons from further rupturing relations between the two countries.
In a statement on February 3, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs regretted that the Chinese hot air balloon flew over the US airspace. Beijing considers this an incident of force majeure, insisting that this is a civilian balloon and is for research purposes.
The White House also takes a cautious approach. Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the balloon did not pose a military threat but called its presence a “violation of sovereignty”. A Pentagon spokesman also said the US military would not provide regular updates on the device’s location. New York Times.
Meanwhile, Mr. Biden said he ordered the balloon to be shot down “as soon as possible” from February 1. However, authorities decided to wait until the object reached the sea to avoid “causing damage on the ground”, according to the report. CNN.
Mr. Biden did not respond to a question about how the decision would affect relations between the US and China. However, foreign affairs experts predict both Beijing and Washington will try to minimize the consequences.
Careful
“The Biden administration has signaled that it will seek to reschedule Mr. Blinken’s visit when conditions permit,” said Daniel Russel, a former senior Asia official under former President Barack Obama and an ideologue. close ties to Biden aides, note.
“If (the decision to shoot down) closes the case, both sides can get back to work. However, if China chooses to play the victim or retaliate, we could see the situation escalate again,” he said.
If the US recovers the balloon’s wreckage and proves it’s a spy device and not a weather monitor, that could embarrass China.
Biden could use the fragments “as a bargaining chip in private discussions,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center.
Two American planes fly around a hot air balloon, seen from South Carolina. Image: Archyde.com.
However, the US and China have a history of restoring relations after rift incidents that angered each other.
For example, on May 7, 1999, a US-led NATO air campaign bombed the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, killing three Chinese journalists and injuring 20 Chinese citizens.
Although the US insists the bombing was a mistake, it has so far caused a sensation in China. However, the incident did not stop efforts to improve relations between the two countries.
On the Taiwan issue, Mr. Biden has repeatedly said that the US government will send troops to help the island, although official US policy is more ambiguous.
And when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, Beijing reacted strongly, conducting live-fire military drills around the island. Beijing also suspended some bilateral military dialogues and joint efforts.
However, three months later, President Biden met with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Indonesia, and the two pledged to try to ease tensions, “handling competition responsibly.” .
But the hot air balloon incident is likely to trigger a strong reaction on Capitol Hill. “The US Congress will almost certainly hold hearings on the administration’s response and raise important questions about the effectiveness of China policy under Mr. Biden,” said Craig Singleton, senior member of Congress. China at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said.
Blinken’s ability to continue his trip to China is also a big question. “The goal of the trip is to (improve) the relationship and explore potential areas of cooperation for mutual benefit,” said a US official familiar with the matter.
However, the balloon “will dominate all discussion,” the official said. “(Therefore), it is better to postpone it for a while.”
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