“There might be a light at the end of the tunnel, a way for us to get in,” Cesar Sandoval said.
A Democratic sweep of the United States Congress in the November 2026 midterm elections has sparked a fresh wave of optimism among migrants marching northward, drawing comparisons to the mood following the 2020 presidential election, The Christian Science Monitor reported. At least two distinct caravans have set off toward the U.S. border.
Yet, the political situation greeting these travelers differs from past years. Mexico and the United States have systematically dismantled the pathways and entry points that previous groups encountered.
Policy Shifts in Mexico
Mexico’s approach to migration has evolved from simple deportation to a rigorous containment strategy centered in the country’s southern states. Long before Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second term, Mexican administrations worked to restrict movement out of the south through militarized enforcement and internal transfers.
In 2014, then-Enrique Peña Nieto introduced Programa Frontera Sur to regulate migration at the Guatemalan border. Subsequent administrations expanded these containment efforts.
Data from the academic journal Migraciones Internacionales indicates that Mexico detained nearly 14 times as many migrants as it deported in 2023. This containment model leaves an estimated 60,000 migrants currently stranded in southern Mexico without easy passage north.
“The Mexican government has learned how to disperse the caravans, and they won’t let them get beyond Oaxaca or, at maximum, Mexico City,” Gretchen Kuhner, director of the Institute for Women in Migration, told The Christian Science Monitor.
Trump Threatens Tariffs as Sheinbaum Defends Border Enforcement
On Nov. 12, President Donald Trump labeled the current caravans “huge” and stated via social media that U.S. tariffs would be immediately doubled if Mexican authorities failed to stop them. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo responded at a news conference that same day by noting that no migrant caravan had successfully reached the northern border since Trump took office.
Laura Velasco Ortiz, a migration expert at Mexico’s College of the Northern Border, pointed out that despite shifts in the U.S. Congress, foundational enforcement dynamics remain unchanged.
“The political composition in the U.S. may have changed in the midterm election, but Trump’s still president,” Dr. Velasco told The Christian Science Monitor.
U.S. border enforcement statistics illustrate the sharp contraction of authorized entry. While U.S.–Mexico border encounters hit a record 2.47 million in fiscal year 2023, that figure dropped to roughly 443,000 unauthorized crossings and inadmissible arrivals in 2025 during Trump’s first year back in office. Current rules have effectively halted the traditional asylum process at the southern frontier.
The Journey of Dios Con Nosotros
The current movement involves relatively small groups compared to past years. Between 2019 and 2025, more than 50 caravans comprising an estimated 70,000 people departed from southern Mexico, according to findings published in Migraciones Internacionales.
One active caravan, known as “Dios Con Nosotros” (“God Is With Us”), left Honduras and gathered additional travelers in the southern Mexican city of Tapachula, totaling roughly 1,500 people, according to the Chiapas state government. Members of this group stated their immediate goal is to reach Mexico City over the course of several weeks to seek administrative assistance.
Local security forces recently intercepted a smaller group of travelers crossing from Guatemala, resulting in 38 detentions, according to the Colectivo De Monitoreo Frontera Sur.
“We call on the U.S. government to halt the discourse of hate and threats that are putting people in need of international protection at risk,” the group said in a Nov. 12 news release.
On Nov. 11, 2026, migrants in the Chiapas state of southern Mexico participated in the “Dios Con Nosotros” caravan as they marched northward.
