Will the fossil era really come to an end after the Dubai climate summit?

2023-12-14 20:50:10

Nearly two hundred countries agreed at the climate summit in Dubai to phase out the use of fossil fuels. But what does such an agreement really mean? “The pressure is increasing enormously on all sides to move away from fossil.”

Zoals altijd op klimaattoppen is ook de uitkomst in Dubai een compromis waar niemand helemaal tevreden mee is. Het ene land wilde stevigere afspraken over fossiele brandstoffen, terwijl het andere juist vindt dat klimaatakkoorden alleen over de uitstoot moeten gaan en niet over de concrete maatregelen die landen moeten nemen.

Het resultaat is een tussenvorm, waarin duidelijk staat dat de uitstoot snel en scherp omlaag moet, maar landen toch nog veel vrijheid krijgen. Het akkoord roept landen op bij te dragen aan een lijst van wereldwijde doelen, waaronder het afbouwen van fossiele brandstoffen.

Dat klinkt misschien zo vrijblijvend dat het akkoord niet veel voorstelt. Toch is het voor het eerst dat op een klimaattop een afspraak is gemaakt over het afbouwen van fossiele brandstoffen, verreweg de belangrijkste bron van CO2-uitstoot. Daar waren dus 28 klimaattoppen voor nodig.

Now for tangible measures

The fact that such an agreement has now proven to be acceptable to all countries sends a strong signal, according to several EU politicians. European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, chief negotiator on behalf of the EU, thinks it will encourage countries to take action. “Once countries sign, you can generally assume that they will do it,” he said on Wednesday.

But that is still a big step. “An agreement is only as good as its implementation,” said Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the president of the climate summit. “We must now take the necessary steps to translate this agreement into tangible measures.”

If countries and companies continue to invest their money in coal-fired power stations, oil wells and gas terminals, the agreement will be worth little. In the coming years it will become clear whether they really set a new course.

Pieter Pauw, climate finance researcher at TU Eindhoven, is positive about this. “The pressure is increasing enormously on all sides to move away from fossil fuels,” he says. “Once these types of decisions have been made, they cannot be reversed. We can assume that this text will at least be repeated next year, but probably tightened up.”

The financial world must keep up

The agreement will give investors in green energy more confidence, he believes investment bank UBS. It shows that countries are taking the transition to green energy seriously and want to accelerate it. As a result, such an investment may be seen as less risky.

The question is whether enough money is being invested in the energy transition to achieve the ambitious climate goals. In the long term, green energy is cheaper than fossil energy almost everywhere in the world. But major investments are needed to close coal-fired power stations and install wind farms. Where should that money come from?

That is what next year’s climate summit is mainly about. That summit will therefore partly determine the success of the current agreement. Because if the financial world does not move along with the agreements that climate diplomats make, the ambitions will prove unattainable.

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Agreement is a stick for activists to beat with

There is also a role for activists, thinks Bill McKibben. The American writer and environmental activist is not impressed by what the system of international climate negotiations has achieved in the past thirty years. “It is not so much designed to solve a crisis, but above all to defend the interests of the world powers,” wrote him last week.

Yet the outcome in Dubai could potentially have major consequences. “In itself, this agreement will not achieve anything,” argues McKibben. “But it is something that activists can use from now on.”

It gives them a stick to beat with, in parliaments, shareholder meetings and courts around the world. There they can point out that all countries have agreed to phase out the use of fossil fuels.

In this way they can increase the pressure on politicians and business people to participate in the climate transition. Will the United States and other countries continue with planned oil and gas export expansions in the coming years, or will they decide to leave those fuels in the ground? That will be the real litmus test for Dubai’s success.