The current global situation is chaotic, the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the United States has raised interest rates sharply to suppress high inflation. After that, the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan intensified the risk of geopolitical war. Hong Kong stocks also fell by more than 500 points. When the market was full of haze, fortunately last week, the government brought some good news to the public, announcing that starting from August 12, the number of days in hotel quarantine for those arriving in Hong Kong will be reduced to three days, followed by four days of home medical surveillance. What impact will the next “3+4” relaxation of arrangements have on the property market?
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The Hong Kong business community generally welcomes this measure, believing that the new arrangement will help local business talents to travel overseas and attract professionals to work in Hong Kong, and it will also bring convenience to some business visitors to do business in Hong Kong. As for tourism, it is estimated that it will help drive Hong Kong people to travel abroad, but it is believed that it will not help much to drive tourists to Hong Kong.
Since various countries have gradually eased entry restrictions, a large number of Hong Kong professionals and funds have flowed out of the country, especially neighboring Singapore. The local GDP grew by 4.4% in the second quarter, and the annual economic growth is estimated to be between 3% and 4%. Compared with Hong Kong’s contraction of 1.3% in the second quarter, the annual growth is expected to be only plus or minus 0.5%. .
Looking forward to customs clearance inside and outside
But it is better to do it late than not at all. The new arrangement represents Hong Kong’s first step towards customs clearance. It is believed that the government will collect data during this period to assess the risks of customs clearance in the future. It also hopes to hold the “International Financial Investment Summit” and The opportunity of the “International Rugby Sevens” to promote the return to normal in Hong Kong, the cancellation of hotel quarantine and the international integration, has brought Hong Kong’s economy back to life.
It is believed that opening the “international customs” as soon as possible is also a requirement of the central government to the Hong Kong government. In the complex and ever-changing international situation, Hong Kong must continue to maintain internationalization, maintain its status as an international financial, trade and shipping center, and act as a window for the country to the outside world. Only then can Hong Kong show itself. value. As for the “Mainland Customs”, I believe there will be a clearer direction after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in October.
Therefore, the author believes that the news about “internal and external customs clearance” will be gradually released in the next few months. Even though the property market is shrouded in a lot of bad news today, and the second-hand property prices have fallen repeatedly, please don’t take the market outlook too lightly. A rebound could occur at any time in the fourth quarter.
King Sir
This column is published every other Tuesday