Zambia elections haunted by ghost of incumbent president’s arch-rival

Zambians went to the polls on August 13, 2026, in presidential, parliamentary, and local elections. President Hakainde Hichilema seeks a second term, running on his economic recovery record, while facing opposition challenger Brian Mundubile amidst a campaign overshadowed by his late predecessor Edgar Lungu.

The Long Shadow of Edgar Lungu and the Opposition Challenge

As voters cast ballots across the southern African copper producer, the political landscape remained haunted by the feud between President Hakainde Hichilema and his late predecessor, Edgar Lungu. Hichilema, 64, defeated Lungu by a landslide in 2021 to lead the country. The political enmity between the two camps persisted even after Lungu died in South Africa in June 2025.

A bitter legal battle preceded Lungu’s final rites when Zambia’s government went to court to stop the family from burying him, objecting to Hichilema presiding over a state funeral. South Africa’s supreme court of appeal eventually ruled in favor of Lungu’s family.

In this election cycle, Hichilema faces the Tonse Alliance, led by Brian Mundubile, 55, who served as government chief whip under Lungu. Mundubile’s running mate, Makebi Zulu, acted as the Lungu family spokesperson during the burial dispute. The opposition ticket campaigned on a promise to return Lungu’s body to Zambia for a dignified burial.

“Even Hichilema supporters want to see due respect given to those that have died. When it appears things get messy, it just makes the incumbent look disrespectful.”

Christopher Vandome, senior research fellow at Chatham House

Economic Gains Meet Cost of Living Pressures

Hichilema structured his reelection bid around his administration’s economic management. Zambia defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020 under Lungu, triggering a severe financial crisis. Since taking office, Hichilema steered the country through a debt restructuring and recovery program.

Annual inflation dropped to 6.5%, a sharp decline from 24.6% in July 2021. The administration also made primary and secondary education free in 2022. Additionally, Zambia attracted increased international mining investment due to its vast copper deposits.

At the start of August 2026, Hichilema increased student accommodation allowances by 50% with immediate effect. Support among students remained visible in the capital.

James Phiri, a student at the University of Zambia, said he voted for HH because he cares about us and that things are better after he re-introduced meal allowances.

Despite macroeconomic improvements, nearly 8.8 million registered voters also faced persistent financial pressures. World Bank data shows average annual income rose from $1,127 in 2021 to $1,318 in 2025, but consumer prices nearly doubled over the same period.

“I have just come from firing someone. We are tired of stories about economic progress.”

Samuel Chitendwe, welder and father of four

Allegations of Repression and Campaign Fairness

The campaign period saw friction over political freedoms. The Tonse Alliance accused the government of deploying authoritarian tactics, citing the raid on opposition offices and the detention of 36 members of Mundubile’s team.

Zambia: Polls open in elections expected to favour incumbent president

Ruling party representatives pushed back against the allegations by referencing past crackdowns under Lungu. A spokesperson for the United Party for National Development noted that the opposition campaigns freely across all 10 provinces, noting that no media houses were closed during the current cycle.

However, independent monitors reported uneven enforcement of assembly rules. Transparency International Zambia noted instances of police interrupting opposition events.

“Disruptions from the police citing issues to do with safety have been noted to be more biased against the opposition and independents, as opposed to … the ruling party.”

Tamika Halwiindi, coordinator at Transparency International Zambia

Activist groups also reported restrictions on peaceful assemblies, including an incident where members of the Fight Inequality Alliance were detained for more than 12 hours in July 2024 during protests against power blackouts.

Polling Logistics and Presidential Prospects

Polling stations opened at 6 a.m. (0400 GMT) on August 13, 2026, and closed at 6 p.m., with results anticipated by Monday. Voters cast ballots simultaneously in presidential, parliamentary, and local government elections across the country of 22 million people.

A person casts a vote at a polling station during Zambia
Photo: Reuters

Lee Habasonda, a political science lecturer at the University of Zambia, noted that the opposition maintained strong support bases in Lusaka and the Copperbelt Province, while the incumbent party retained deeper rural backing.

To secure a victory in the first round, a presidential candidate must capture more than 50% of the total votes cast. If no candidate clears that threshold, a runoff election must take place within 37 days.

Analysts observed that while Hichilema held a clear advantage due to his governance record, lingering historical sensitivities shaped the race.

“[Hichilema’s] prospects of winning are very high. But his … personal lived experience of how complicated Zambian elections can be has given him this insecurity which is actually counting against him … denting his image in a way he doesn’t have to.”

Christopher Vandome, senior research fellow at Chatham House

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Omar El Sayed - World Editor

Omar El Sayed is Archyde’s World Editor, focused on international affairs, diplomacy, conflict, and cross-border political developments. He brings a global newsroom perspective to complex events and helps readers understand how regional stories connect to wider geopolitical shifts.

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