The New Political Math: Why Democrats Are Winning Despite Unpopularity
The 2025 election cycle delivered a stark message: in an era of deep polarization, it’s not necessarily likability that wins elections, but turnout. Democrats swept Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial races, secured the New York City mayoralty, and made significant gains down-ballot, even as polls consistently show the party grappling with an image problem. This isn’t a fluke; it’s a fundamental shift in the American electorate, and it has profound implications for the 2026 midterms and beyond.
The Decline of Persuasion, the Rise of Mobilization
For decades, political strategy centered on swaying undecided voters. But as political scientist Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics points out, that game is fading. “We’ve become more polarized and there are fewer swing voters,” Trende explained. “It’s less of a persuasion game and more of just a simple turnout game.” The electorate has effectively fractured into two highly motivated bases, making the ability to get your supporters to the polls the dominant factor in determining outcomes. This isn’t a new phenomenon, but its acceleration is reshaping the political landscape.
This trend is particularly evident when comparing election results with and without Donald Trump on the ballot. Trump, despite his own unpopularity with many, acts as a powerful mobilizing force for the Republican base. Without him, Republican turnout demonstrably suffers, creating opportunities for Democratic gains. The pattern mirrors what was observed during the Obama years – strong presidential performance followed by Democratic struggles in off-year elections.
The Trump Effect: A Turnout Booster, Not a Popularity Contest
The data is clear: Trump’s presence on the ballot energizes a specific segment of the electorate. But his influence isn’t about converting opponents; it’s about ensuring his supporters show up. This dynamic presents a significant challenge for Republicans. They’ve seemingly traded away their historical advantage with upper-class suburban voters – a demographic that consistently turns out in off-year elections and now leans heavily Democratic. Reclaiming this ground will require more than just appealing to their concerns; it requires a sustained effort to boost turnout among a base that doesn’t automatically mobilize without Trump’s name on the ticket.
Moderation Matters…But Not How You Think
While the Democratic Party grapples with internal debates about appealing to the center versus energizing its base, the results from Virginia and New Jersey offer a nuanced perspective. Moderate candidates, like Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill, outperformed expectations. However, this isn’t necessarily a mandate for wholesale moderation. The Virginia attorney general’s race, where a more progressive candidate still performed strongly despite controversy, suggests a limit to how much “radicalism” can hurt a Democrat in the current environment.
Trende argues that moderation is most valuable during governance, when appealing to the persuadable seven to eight percent of voters is crucial. “Americans still don’t like radical change,” he notes. But in the current climate, winning elections is often about maximizing turnout within existing coalitions, rather than converting those in the middle.
The California Redistricting Play: A Strategic Masterclass
Beyond the headline races, the overwhelming passage of California’s redistricting referendum – a direct response to Republican efforts in Texas – demonstrates a strategic awareness of the new political math. By proactively shaping the electoral map, Democrats are working to solidify their advantages and protect their gains. This move, as reported by The Brennan Center for Justice, highlights the importance of long-term strategic thinking in a polarized environment.
Looking Ahead: A New Era of Electoral Warfare
The 2025 election results aren’t just a temporary setback for Republicans; they signal a fundamental shift in the dynamics of American politics. The focus is no longer on persuading the shrinking pool of swing voters, but on mobilizing existing bases. This means prioritizing voter registration, get-out-the-vote efforts, and strategic mapmaking. For Democrats, it means continuing to build a broad coalition and avoiding internal divisions that could dampen enthusiasm. For Republicans, it means finding a way to replicate Trump’s turnout effect without relying on his personal popularity. The future of American elections will be decided not by who can win over the undecided, but by who can get their voters to the polls.
What strategies do you think will be most effective for both parties in the coming years? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
