Moscow is navigating a dramatically altered geopolitical landscape as the conflict in Iran unfolds, a situation compounded by the recent loss of key allies and a growing reliance on the potential for a shift in U.S. Policy. While publicly expressing concern over the attacks, Russia’s strategic calculations are heavily influenced by its ongoing war in Ukraine and the prospect of a more favorable outcome should Donald Trump return to the White House. The current crisis, and the broader erosion of international norms, is viewed with a degree of resignation, even as it presents new economic opportunities for the Kremlin.
The escalating tensions in the Middle East represent the third significant setback for President Vladimir Putin’s network of international partnerships in just over a year. Following the forced removal of Bashar al-Assad from power in December 2024 – reportedly now residing in Moscow – and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by the U.S., the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei further isolates Russia. These allies were crucial in circumventing what the Kremlin views as a U.S.-dominated international order, and their loss underscores a perceived unraveling of Putin’s efforts to reshape global power dynamics. The situation has led to a surprising sentiment within Russia, a longing for established international rules, according to sources close to the Kremlin.
Russia’s Diminished Influence and the Ukraine Factor
“We have all lost what we call international law,” Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, stated in response to the U.S. And Israeli actions in Iran. Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, echoed this sentiment, calling on the U.S. To justify its actions within the framework of existing international regulations. A source within the Russian foreign policy establishment described a prevailing belief that the U.S. Now operates without constraint, leaving Russia with limited ability to influence events.
However, Russia’s primary focus remains firmly fixed on Ukraine. Since 2022, the war has consumed the vast majority of the country’s resources and international attention. “The outcome of that war will represent the ultimate verdict on Russian power and how it is seen in the world,” said Notte. This prioritization means that other global conflicts, including the situation in Iran, are largely viewed through the lens of their impact on Ukraine.
Trump as a Potential Path to Resolution in Ukraine
Donald Trump is increasingly seen in Moscow as Russia’s best hope for achieving a favorable resolution in Ukraine. Putin’s strategy, according to sources, centers on prolonging the conflict and increasing costs for both Ukraine and Europe, with the expectation that Trump will pressure Kyiv and its allies to negotiate on terms more acceptable to Moscow. “Our leadership is so focussed on the question of Ukraine, everything else looks secondary in comparison,” a Moscow foreign-policy source explained. “If there remains any chance at all that Trump can help with Ukraine, that’s enough of an argument not to create problems for yourself in other areas.”
Despite publicly denouncing Khamenei’s killing, Russia has signaled a willingness to continue engaging with the U.S., particularly regarding Ukraine. Peskov expressed “deep disappointment” over the failure of U.S. Talks with Iran, while simultaneously emphasizing Russia’s “high value” placed on U.S. Mediation efforts in Ukraine. Reports indicate Russia is maintaining its intelligence support to Iran, providing information for potential targeting of U.S. Forces, but is wary of actions that could jeopardize its relationship with Trump. “If the U.S. Helps Ukraine with this, I don’t notice why Russia can’t do the same,” the source added, “but it’s obvious the Kremlin doesn’t want to greatly upset Trump, and will err on playing it safe in avoiding red lines.”
Economic Benefits and a Shifting Energy Landscape
Beyond the geopolitical considerations, Russia is actively seeking to capitalize on the instability in the Middle East. The conflict is diverting U.S. Resources, specifically air-defense interceptors, away from Ukraine – a development that Moscow views favorably. “The more that are fired over the skies of the Middle East, the less there are to defend those above Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro,” a source noted.
the war in Iran is driving up global energy prices. With approximately one-third of its budget reliant on oil and gas sales, Russia stands to benefit significantly from the increased revenue. Oil prices, which were below $70 a barrel before the recent escalation, spiked to nearly $120 before settling around $90. Russia’s ability to export oil via routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, such as through the Bosphorus or overland pipelines, further enhances its position. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former advisor at Russia’s central bank and a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, estimates that Russia could net an additional $3.5 billion in revenue per month if current prices hold, representing roughly a third of the estimated monthly cost of the war in Ukraine.
A weakened and unstable Iran is also seen as potentially increasing Russia’s and China’s influence in the region. “A weak, unstable, battered Iran is exactly the kind of state that will need Russia, and China, all the more,” Notte said. “There’s much for Russia not to like about this war, but seeing as it happened they want to reap the maximum benefits.”
The situation remains fluid, and Russia’s strategy will likely continue to adapt based on developments in both Iran and Ukraine. The Kremlin’s calculations are heavily influenced by the U.S. Political landscape and the potential for a shift in policy following the upcoming presidential election. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Russia can leverage the current crisis to its advantage, both economically and strategically.
What are your thoughts on Russia’s position in the evolving geopolitical landscape? Share your insights in the comments below.
