A precinct in Miami, Florida, experienced significantly reduced voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election due to the simultaneous threat of a major hurricane, according to a new analysis of election data.
The findings, released this month by researchers at Washington University’s Center for Social Development, highlight a growing vulnerability in American democracy: the suppression of voter participation by increasingly frequent and severe climate disasters. The study examined over 2,000 precincts in Miami, Los Angeles and San Antonio – cities chosen for their exposure to hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding, respectively.
Researchers found that disaster risk creates barriers to voting, particularly in communities already facing systemic inequalities. The analysis focused on the 2020 election, but builds on earlier work examining voter access and engagement. “When disaster strikes, barriers arise that can silence voters,” said the report, authored by Brugger, Spindler-Ruiz, and Sandoval.
The impact isn’t limited to immediate disaster zones. A separate analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists, released earlier this month, revealed persistent racial disparities in voter turnout and ballot rejection rates across key swing states – Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The UCS study, which analyzed elections from 2016, 2020, and 2024, found that precincts with lower turnout rates, disproportionately located in majority-people of color communities, were also more likely to have higher rates of ballot rejection. In 2020, fewer than 45,000 votes separated the candidates in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin.
These disparities are not new, but the convergence of climate-driven disasters and existing inequalities presents a heightened threat. The University of Chicago Law Review published an analysis in 2020 warning that the COVID-19 pandemic, and the associated disruptions to in-person voting, would likely depress voter turnout and raise questions about the democratic legitimacy of the election. The concerns raised then are now amplified by the increasing frequency of climate events.
Researchers have also identified targeted digital voter suppression efforts, with a study from January 2026 revealing geo-racial targeting patterns in the 2016 US Presidential Election. The study found that non-White communities were specifically targeted with disinformation campaigns designed to discourage voting.
Overall voter turnout in the United States remains lower than in many other countries, typically around 60% in presidential elections and 40% in midterm years, according to FairVote. The combined effect of systemic barriers, targeted suppression, and climate-related disruptions threatens to further erode participation and exacerbate existing inequalities.
The Washington University study calls for integrating social, structural, and environmental considerations when assessing urban electoral resilience. No immediate legislative response to the findings has been announced.
