2023-07-12 13:13:57
By Hasan Hami
An interesting discovery of phosphate deposits in Norway estimated at 70 billion tonnes was announced three days ago. Information like no other.
Some saw it as a disruption of the hierarchy in a very strategic matter for fertilizers, solar panels, lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, semiconductors and conductor chips.
Indeed, faced with the expected deficit in the supply of nickel and cobalt by 3030, manufacturers of electronic vehicles are counting, among other things, on the use of Li-ion iron phosphate batteries (LFP).
One more discovery: why not a godsend?
Some observers have turned their eyes to Morocco, which is credited with having 50 billion tonnes of phosphates, or 70% of world reserves.
The first articles written in this direction were written by Arab journalists. Normal, except that they spiced them up with a touch of irony or even cynicism.
Some articles have been written by pens which either have a grudge against Morocco or come from countries which are competitors to it although they have insignificant reserves of phosphates.
However, the discovery of new phosphate deposits in Norway could be seen as good news. I will explain why?
This will increase the number of countries whose soil is full of this strategic raw material. At present, there are about thirty of them, the first four of which are the United States, Russia, China and Morocco. A restricted club.
Having Norway as a new Scandinavian member, alongside Finland, will not disturb Morocco. For what?
First, Morocco, like many countries, is concerned about food security. He does this while being jealous of environmental protection. We know that the massive extraction of phosphates has a serious impact on the soil, the stabilization of the subsoil and it is a source of pollution.
The multiplication of producers will lighten the burden of demand and avoid future geopolitical misunderstandings in Morocco. Proof of this is that among the first satisfied with the announcement of the Norwegian discovery, there are European countries. They see it as a substantial reduction in their dependence in this area, particularly with regard to the United States and China. This, while among their main suppliers are Iraq and Syria.
They view this discovery with the same misperception they had when enjoying the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war on energy security. They turned to Norway, but they did not reduce their dependence on the United States and other non-European suppliers. And they did not benefit from preferential tariffs either.
Second, Morocco is learning from the past experiences of some countries that have turned a tangible asset such as oil into a political weapon and have forgotten to consider other modes and means of development and economic progress. Oil has become a curse. These countries are doubling their efforts now to make up for lost time, but are struggling to do so.
Morocco: ambition and realism
Third, Morocco remembers the experience of the 1970s, when phosphate prices reached a record level. Ambitious development plans were drawn up and were abandoned following the fall in prices on the world market.
Indeed, in 1973, Morocco was forced to increase the selling price of phosphate, taking advantage of strong demand and anticipating a certain shortage, the signals of which were obvious.
The Moroccan decision departed from the practice of market stability decided throughout the 1960s by the United States.
The euphoria fizzled out and prices plummeted due to the fall in demand artificially caused by the United States and its Western allies.
The United States could not tolerate another unilateral decision that looked like two drops of water to that of the oil-producing countries which decreed a general embargo following the October war between Israel and the Arab countries.
A recovery was observed in 1978, but the damage had already been done. Morocco found itself in a difficult situation even though it was engaged in a diplomatic and then military battle to recover and consolidate its sovereignty over the Sahara.
Fourthly, Morocco makes phosphate one of the locomotives of its economic development, but it is not the only one although, according to the latest statistics, the contribution of phosphates to GDP has varied between 5 and 10% over the last ten years.
This resulted in exports of phosphates and derivatives reaching 24.54 billion dirhams in March 2022, according to figures from the Office des Changes, against 13.43 billion dirhams during the same period in 2021.
In addition, the Cherifian Office of Phosphates (OCP) is continuing its investments to improve production while perfecting the means capable of guaranteeing respect for the environment.
In this regard, OCP will invest a total of 130 billion dirhams to increase mining and fertilizer production capacity for the period of 2023-2027.
The investment also aims to implement Morocco’s policy on energy transition and the development of renewable energies.
Fifthly, history always retains that the possession of critical raw materials has been the source of all covetousness. Murderous wars and human tragedies have resulted.
The discovery of oil in Baku (Azerbaijan) in 1870 and in Kazakhstan in 1911, and a little earlier in Pennsylvania, USA in 1859, was a source of local and international tension and hegemony.
There have even been disputes between the heirs of the Nobel family, which was the first to discover oil in the two countries bordering the Capsian Sea, and the Kazakh authorities a few years ago.
Similarly, the discovery of oil in the Middle East in Iran (1908), Bahrain (1925), Saudi Arabia (1936) and Kuwait (1938) was, among other things, the source of fierce competition between the powers of the time (France and Great Britain) as well as the United States, at a distance.
This factor added to the ambitions already expressed in Azerbaijan, accentuated by the discovery of oil in Iran.
The precipitation of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire is one of the first consequences which will be confirmed by the Sykes-Picot Agreements in 2016 on the divisions of the Middle East.
Strategic resources, Achilles heel
Wars have been the consequence of covetousness and mercantile calculations, as evidenced by the invasion of Iraq and the planned fragmentation of Libya.
This, in the same spirit of the scenarios that pile up in the drawers of Western political and strategic planners, to trigger wars targeting natural gas and water.
Sixth, easy-winners lacking long-term strategic vision will see the new Norwegian phosphate discovery as competition in Morocco. It’s competition, of course, but all the other producers who manage this strategic material for the end of the century are targeted.
But they are relieved that Norway will allow them to keep their reserves intact or to reduce the pressure on production without a rational study of its repercussions on the environment and on people.
Morocco also has the right to feel relieved for political, economic and ecological reasons. However, he must remain vigilant because lusts are brewing widely.
We recall the revelation of former US President Donald Trump in August 2019 that his administration would like to offer Denmark to buy the island of Greenland, known for its abundant resources and for its unparalleled strategic location. The end of good reception from Copenhagen does not however put an end to this story.
Still, Norway, already very rich, will meditate for a long time before deciding what to do with these new reserves, although the exploitation of the discovered reserves is scheduled for 2028.
Norway, like the other Scandinavian countries, is now on the alert, because lusts and disputes over the Arctic will go up a notch.
Conservationists too, because future extractions of Norwegian phosphate will have an impact on the entire ecosystem. The United States did so for Alaska after much hesitation. But there, some will say, it’s a different story.
A question that arises from a legitimate curiosity: How will Norway, so fiercely jealous of the defense of the environment, reconcile between its ecological concerns and the exploitation of this new wealth?
And how will the other Scandinavian countries, which are just as nature-loving, behave? Perhaps, a nod to the 2009 Copenhagen climate change conference: drive around, there’s nothing to see.
Geopolitician
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