The AUKUS pact (Australia, United Kingdom and United States) made public on September 15, 2021 and the attitude of the United States in this matter raises many questions. To simplify, the “Atlanticists” applaud, the others question themselves, Washington’s adversaries protest. This agreement, which is strictly speaking not military, is clearly directed against China.
However, President Vladimir Putin welcomes his counterpart Xi Jinping for a three-day state visit while he himself is under a request for arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICT), an organization not recognized by Russia and by China – but not by the United States either.
Geopolitics
At the level of geopolitics, the AUKUS participates in the famous “complex of encirclement” of China. It is this same feeling that served as a pretext for Russia to attack Ukraine even though the situation was very different.
Washington rejects its veracity and only claims to want to “defend democracy” wherever possible. In response, its adversaries claim that the American objective is quite different: the geopolitical and economic domination of the world. They go so far as to claim that defending democracy in Taiwan is not their real objective: it is the geostrategic situation of the island in the China Sea that interests them in the first place.
The “feeling of encirclement” is clearly felt as such in Beijing (c/f map above) and may explain the new links forged with Moscow.
Cheap supplies of hydrocarbons from China and the takeover on very advantageous terms of the Russian economic fabric abandoned by Western companies (such as the automobile industry) following the international sanctions decreed after the invasion of Ukraine also contribute to Beijing’s interest in Moscow.
As for the accusations of Chinese arms sales to Russia, it seems that anything considered “dual use” must already be flowing to the Russian military-industrial complex.
CNN reported that a Chinese-made drone used by Russia was shot down by the Ukrainian military last weekend. It is a Mugin-5, a civilian drone that Russia would have armed with an explosive charge of about twenty kilos. Mugin Limited said it had stopped selling products to Russia and kyiv since the start of the war in Ukraine.
AUKUS reviews
As early as September 2021, former Australian Prime Minister (1991-96) Paul Keating sharply criticized the announcement of the AUKUS alliance established in the greatest secrecy between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. He then declared: “Australia is turning its back on the 21st century, the century of Asia”. He believed that this agreement “would lock the country and its military forces into the force structure of the United States by acquiring American submarines.”
He assured that Australian politicians were: “A false representation of China’s foreign policy. “He had then been roughly crushed by the Australian political world.
This did not prevent him from reiterating in January 2022 by claiming that British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss (short-lived Prime Minister from September 6 to October 25, 2022) of having made “insane” comments on Chinese military aggression. in the Pacific, claiming that “Britain suffers from delusions of grandeur and lack of foresight.(1)”
He could have added that since the First World War, Great Britain has been the most faithful ally of the United States, having followed Washington in all its military operations with the exception of Vietnam. After Ukraine, it seems indeed ready to follow Washington in its policy in the Pacific… For London, it is not a question of means – which are very insufficient to be able to be very effective in the Far East – but of principles.
In 2023, Keating again called the AUKUS pact “the worst deal in history” and castigated the Labor government for its “incompetence”.
Finally in March, Keating explained his thinking by speaking of “a new Cold War [qui a pour but] to maintain American hegemony in Asia. For him, “China does not threaten the United States. No one can threaten the United States. In the eyes of the United States, China has committed the great sin of developing an economy as important as theirs. »
He seems to be on the same wavelength as Jean-Pierre Raffarin who estimated in mid-March on EuropeSoir that “The Americans don’t want us to be allies, they want us to be aligned! “.
According to Gérard Araud, former French ambassador to the USA: “the next debate in Paris: between those who will call for alignment with the United States against China and those who want to preserve the autonomy of Europe and France. The former will obviously accuse the latter of being sold to China. »
The Chinese military threat
It is true that the awakening of China as a leading economic and military power has worried Washington, London and Canberra for years. In addition, the countries of the region are primarily concerned since Beijing claims the South Pacific almost in its entirety without of course mentioning its desire for reunification with Taiwan. To justify a little more the fears of Canberra, it should be known that China launches each year as many ships as does not have Australia. In addition, many submarines are nuclear powered and some armed with strategic missiles.
The details of the naval deal are now well known as Australia made the biggest military investment since World War II when it agreed to buy three nuclear-powered attack submarines within the next ten years. Virginia-class US. If necessary, two more copies could be ordered.
However, member countries of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations founded by five states, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. They were joined by Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Burma (now Myanmar) then Cambodia should not take part directly because this organization has the principle of not intervening in the internal affairs of other countries. The fact remains that Malaysia and Indonesia have made apart, individually, from their fears of witnessing nuclear proliferation. Even if the Virginia-class submarines are not strategic vectors, these two countries believe that this could encourage others to acquire ships nuclear-powered, which in their view constitutes a kind of proliferation.
Undoubtedly, the Indo-Pacific region will be the scene of major crises in the next thirty years. That said, Alain Peyrefitte, former minister of General de Gaulle, had published in 1973 an essay entitled: “When China wakes up… the world will tremble”. Half a century later, this is perhaps what is happening.
1. See: “Comments from the National Director of Intelligence on International Threats” of March 12, 2023