2023-10-06 15:00:24
For African countries, trading partners of the European Union (EU), a form of countdown has just begun. At the beginning of October, the Twenty-Seven launched the testing phase of their “border carbon adjustment mechanism” (MACF). This requires European companies to declare the carbon content of their imports of products considered to be very polluting: iron, steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers and hydrogen. By 2026, this system will impose a tax on the CO₂ emitted during their manufacture abroad. The challenge is to prevent relocations and unfair competition from producers in regions where climate regulations are less strict than within the EU.
The entry into force is therefore gradual. “But Africa is not prepared. And it won’t be in three years.”, warns climate diplomacy expert Faten Aggad. Former advisor to the African Climate Foundation, the latter carried out a study with David Luke, professor at the London School of Economics, aimed at quantifying the repercussions of this future tax for the continent. “The impact on African countries would be greater, in proportion to their GDP, than on all other regions”they conclude, recalling that the EU is a major market for African exporters specializing in products targeted by the MACF.
According to the study, the drop in exports could reduce African GDP by 0.91%, or the equivalent of 25 billion dollars (nearly 24 billion euros). “To put these figures in context, the annual losses due to the border tax represent, in value, three times the development cooperation budget that the EU has committed to dedicate to Africa in 2021”wrote David Luke in a tribune published in July on the site The Conversation.
“A fear has set in”
A handful of countries risk being particularly penalized. Mozambique, which exports more than half of its aluminum to Europe, could lose 1.6% of its GDP, according to a assessment from the American think tank Center for Global Development. Other exposed African economies include South Africa, Cameroon and Egypt for aluminum, Zimbabwe for iron and steel, Morocco for fertilizers, as well as Tunisia and Algeria.
Furthermore, while the European Commission must assess, at the end of the transitional period, whether the scope of the MACF should be extended to other products and services, “a fear has set in”says Carlos Lopes, professor at the University of Cape Town, South Africa. “Are we going to add, for example, the bauxite produced by a certain number of African countries and which is used to manufacture aluminum?asks the Guinea-Bissau economist. This uncertainty risks discouraging investments. »
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