Securities Times reporter Zhang Da
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, in July, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with declining housing prices increased slightly, the sales prices of commercial housing in first-tier cities rose slightly month-on-month, and second- and third-tier cities showed a downward trend overall. Among them, the price of new houses in Chengdu led the country for 4 consecutive months. On a year-on-year basis, the increase in housing prices in first-tier cities fell, and the decline in second- and third-tier cities expanded. Among them, the year-on-year increase of new house prices in Hangzhou ranked first in the country for 4 consecutive months.
Industry insiders believe that the market bottomed out again in July, and the weakening of market expectations is the reason for the lack of motivation for housing price repair. Looking ahead, the market expects repairs to be the key. Since August, local housing support policies have continued to increase. Under the looser credit and regulatory policies, new housing projects have resumed work and delivery in an orderly manner. Only by accelerating the risk resolution of housing enterprises can market expectations be restored. The national property market policy is expected to maintain a loose tone, the market is unstable, and the policy is not limited.
First-tier cities housing prices rose slightly
Second- and third-tier cities are on the decline
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the prices of new and second-hand houses fell in 40 and 51, an increase of 2 and 3 respectively from the previous month.
From the month-on-month data, the price of new houses in first-tier cities rose by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the price of second-hand housing rose by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The price of new houses in second-tier cities changed from an increase of 0.1% in the previous month to the same; Prices of new and second-hand homes in third-tier cities both fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month.
From the perspective of specific cities, Chengdu’s new house price increase ranks first, at 1%, and has led the country for 4 consecutive months; Nanchang and Yangzhou are tied for second, at 0.8%; Hangzhou and Hefei are tied for third, at 0.7 %; Xi’an ranked fourth with 0.6%; Beijing, Shanghai and Yinchuan ranked fifth with 0.5%.
Judging from the year-on-year data, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there were 48 cities with year-on-year declines in new house prices, the same number as last month; 61 cities with year-on-year declines in second-hand housing prices, an increase of 4 cities over the previous month.
Among them, the prices of new houses and second-hand houses in first-tier cities increased by 3.1% and 0.9% year-on-year respectively, and the increase was 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The prices of new houses and second-hand houses in second-tier cities fell by 0.5% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline was 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The prices of new houses and second-hand houses in third-tier cities fell by 3.2% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline was 0.4 and 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month.
The year-on-year increase in new house prices ranked first in Hangzhou, at 6.6%, leading the country for 4 consecutive months; Beijing was second at 5.5%; Chengdu was third at 5.1%; Yinchuan was fourth at 4.2%; Fifth, it was 4.1%.
Market Anticipation Repair is Key
Regarding the market performance in July, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out that the performance of housing prices in different cities was differentiated in July, and first-tier cities still showed strong resilience. month to expand. “The resilience of first-tier cities is mainly due to the strong support of housing demand.” He said that relatively speaking, most weak second- and third-tier cities have relatively weak housing demand. In July, housing prices in second- and third-tier cities showed a downward trend as a whole, and second-hand housing in second-tier cities showed a downward trend. The month-on-month decline in prices expanded from the previous month.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, also said that after the market stabilized and recovered in June, the market bottomed out again in July. Both the new and second-hand housing markets experienced price reductions and the number of cities increased. increased. On the whole, the market is still in the process of finding the bottom when the policy has been comprehensively relaxed.
On July 28, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee clearly stated that “use the policy toolbox to support rigid and improved housing needs”, and pointed out the direction of real estate policy in the next step.
In Xu Xiaole’s view, the weakening of market expectations is the reason for the lack of motivation for housing price repair. On the one hand, the suspension of some off-plan housing projects and the delayed delivery of houses since July have increased the wait-and-see mood of home buyers, and the market expects that the repair will be hindered. On the other hand, under the background of repeated epidemics in some areas and increasing downward pressure on the economy, residents’ willingness to consume is insufficient, as evidenced by the central bank’s data showing that social financing and credit growth declined more than expected in July. Under the combined influence, the market has declined, and the momentum of housing price repair has weakened.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Xu Xiaole believes that the key is to restore market expectations. Since August, local housing support policies have continued to increase. Under the looser credit and regulatory policies, new housing projects have resumed work and delivered houses in an orderly manner. Only by accelerating the risk resolution of housing enterprises can market expectations be restored.