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| April 29, 2022 at 9:32 PM
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The war in Ukraine has caused a major shock on commodity markets and changed the pattern of trade, production and consumption in the world, the World Bank (WB) has just indicated. The latest edition of the report Commodity Markets Outlouk published by the Bretton Woods institution points out that prices will remain at historically high levels until the end of 2024.
The increase in energy prices over the past two years has been the largest since the oil crisis of 1973, that of food raw materials – of which Russia and Ukraine are major producers – and of fertilizers, of which the production depends on natural gas, has never been so strong since 2008, specifies the WB.
Uncertain outlook
It has been noted, from this perspective, that energy prices are likely to rise more than 50% in 2022 before falling in 2023 and 2024; As for those of non-energy goods, in particular agricultural products and metals, they should increase by almost 20% in 2022, then also decrease in the following years.
However, commodity prices are expected to remain well above the average of the past five years, and in the event of a prolonged war or new sanctions against Russia, they could become even higher and more volatile than currently expected. we assure.
At retail, due to trade and production disruptions following the war, the price of crude oil (Brent) is expected to average $100 per barrel in 2022, its highest level since 2013 and an increase of more than 40% from 2021. It is expected to fall to $92 in 2023, which will be well above the five-year average of $60 a barrel. (European) natural gas prices are expected to be twice as high in 2022 as in 2021, while coal prices are expected to be 80% higher, both historic highs.
Also according to forecasts, wheat prices are expected to increase by more than 40% and reach a record level in nominal terms this year, which will penalize developing economies that depend on wheat imports, particularly from Russia and Ukraine. . Metal prices are expected to rise by 16% in 2022 before easing in 2023, but remaining at high levels.
Tunisia – 2022: 5 billion dinars to hold on
The hydrocarbons and oil sector are among the sectors most affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with a direct impact on the state budget, exceeding 4 billion dinars, said yesterday Thursday Neila Nouira Gongi, Minister of l industry, mining and energy.
Gongi stated that “the rise in the price of a barrel of Brent, at a price equivalent to 101 dollars, until April 4, 2022, leads to an increase in subsidies for the year 2022 to the tune of 8,164 million dinars ( MD)”.
Thus, the need for additional resources to ensure the balance of the energy balance is, according to the assumptions of the finance law of 2022, 5137 million dinars with the adoption of the assumption of a price of 75 dollars per barrel. oil with an exchange rate of 2900 dinars for one dollar.
The Minister of Industry explained that any increase in the price of a barrel of oil by one dollar and the exchange rate of the dollar by 10 millimes leads to an increase in fuel subsidies, respectively, by 137 and 40 million dinars.
Ammonium and sulfur which are basic materials used in the Tunisian phosphate industry for the production of fertilizers and phosphoric acid are also supplied from Russia (70%), Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates,” said the Minister.
It should be noted that Tunisia imports 48% of its needs in petroleum products and natural gas, while the Tunisian Society of Refining Industries provides 30% of the country’s needs in these materials.
Alternatives and lines of thought
Ferid Belhaj, WB Group Vice President for the MENA region, recently confirmed the difficulties ahead. The conflict in Ukraine “will directly affect several economies in the MENA (Middle East and Africa North), including Tunisia, whose economy depends on cereal imports, particularly wheat”, he commented.
“This crisis would be capable of disrupting the supply of cereals and oilseeds, but above all of leading to soaring both food prices and the costs of national agricultural production”, he noted in a blog of the BM.
“By opting for higher energy and fertilizer costs, or a combination of the two in some countries in the region, such as Tunisia, the WB is determined to strengthen its support for national agrifood production and marketing. countries, in addition to the management of agricultural risk and food reserves,” reassured Belhaj.
The global financial institution, he added, “would always be ready to provide targeted technical and analytical assistance, primarily for the benefit of the most affected countries in terms of fiscal sustainability, food security, trade monitoring and risk management. as well as subsidy reform”.
Nevertheless and in the absence of compensation, a report by the Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE) recently warned, current international cereal prices could cause a 20% increase in the price of pasta. compared to current prices.
“It will thus be vital to enlighten public opinion as to the delicacy of the situation and its subsequent repercussions…, it will be necessary to revise eating habits, avoiding waste and, above all, putting the general interest at the expense of particular interests. “, we read in the report.
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