Analyst out of work! Bloomberg: ChatGPT's "prediction of stock prices" is very accurate, and it can also understand the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve|

2023-04-18 03:47:49

The recently popular artificial intelligence chat robot ChatGPT has sparked heated discussions in the academic community due to its powerful functions. According to Bloomberg, two papers have been published in April to prove the capabilities of ChatGPT in the financial industry, whether it is to judge the attitude of the Federal Reserve It has also achieved excellent results in predicting the rise and fall of stocks.
(Recap:ChatGPT can “predict the rise and fall of stock prices”!American professor: Analysis of financial news results are surprising）
(background supplement:Nvidia: AI ushers in “iPhone level revolution”, everyone can rent DGX Cloud to generate their own ChatGPT）

closeThe hot artificial intelligence chat robot ChatGPT has attracted heated discussions in the academic circle because of its powerful functions. On the evening of yesterday (17th), Bloomberg reported a newreportIt mentioned the actual test paper report of ChatGPT’s excellent application in the financial industry.

ChatGPT performs well in financial market forecasting

It is understood that some scholars have published two new papers on ChatGPT’s market forecasting function this month. One study ChatGPT predicts whether the Fed’s recent policy will be dovish or hawkish, and the other is to make ChatGPT Judging the rise and fall of stocks.

Unsurprisingly, ChatGPT achieved excellent performance in both tests, especially in scenarios where a large amount of text information such as news, tweets, and speeches needs to be analyzed. Slavi Marinov, Head of Machine Learning at Man AHL, praised the power of ChatGPT:

This is one of the rare cases where the media has not misrepresented.

ChatGPT can accurately judge the Federal Reserve’s attitude towards the market

To further explore the paper itself, the article “Can ChatGPT Interpret the Federal Reserve’s Attitude?” “, the results of the study believe that the judgment made by ChatGPT is very close to the actual situation, and,ChatGPT can even interpret historical Fed statements similarly to Fed analysts。

Take the statement in May 2013 as an example, in which there is a sentence “the labor market has generally shown some signs of improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate is still very high”, ChatGPT believes that this sentence is dovish because it implies economic Not yet recovered, which is very similar to the conclusion of excellent analyst Bryson.

ChatGPT can predict stock price movements through news

The second article “Can ChatGPT predict stock price movements? Reward Predictability and Large Language Models” from Alejandro Lopez-Lira and Yuehua Tang at the University of Florida, who set ChatGPT to replace the work of financial experts, interpreting news and making judgments.

Research conclusions show that ChatGPT performs quite well, and it can screen out negative human emotions for judgment. For example, one of the studies is whether the news of “Rimini Street was fined $630,000 against Oracle” is good or bad for Oracle, ChatGPT sees this as positive news, as the fine “could boost investor confidence in Oracle’s protection of intellectual property rights and increase demand for its products and services,” which is in line with subsequent stock price action.