Analyzing the Impact of Terminal-Authorized Sales at a Loss on Fuel Prices: Real Solution or Risky Strategy?

2023-09-17 11:07:28

1 – Terminal authorizes sales at a loss at the pump

Real solution or new martingale with a stale scent? In an interview with our colleague “Le Parisien”, the Prime Minister lifted a barrier that was as concrete as it was symbolic. “As an exception for fuel and over a period limited to a few months, we will lift the ban on reselling at a loss, which will allow distributors to lower prices further,” she announced. Government spokesperson, Olivier Véran specified that a bill would “very quickly” arrive before…

1 – Terminal authorizes sales at a loss at the pump

Real solution or new martingale with a stale scent? In an interview with our colleague “Le Parisien”, the Prime Minister lifted a barrier that was as concrete as it was symbolic. “As an exception for fuel and over a period limited to a few months, we will lift the ban on reselling at a loss, which will allow distributors to lower prices further,” she announced. Government spokesperson Olivier Véran clarified that a bill would “very quickly” arrive before Parliament. Which, however, means that the measure cannot have immediate effect.

The ban on selling at a loss, a legal requirement dating from 1963, is an essential tool to ensure the proper functioning of competitive markets. It prevents the maneuvers of the “big ones”, tempted to stifle the “small ones” by dragging them into price wars which the latter are condemned to lose.

Its removal, even temporary, says a lot about the executive’s priorities: cushioning at all costs the surge in prices at the pump, a socially explosive subject in a country unable to get rid of its addiction to oil in the oil sector. transport – it represented 28% of the country’s primary energy consumption in 2021.

This last resort solution is not magical. The only distributors who have the backbone strong enough to (possibly) sell at a loss belong to mass distribution. They can recover on the labels on the shelves what targeted operations at discounted prices on fuel cost them. In the end, does the consumer who fills both his tank and his shopping cart come out a winner? To have.

2 – Risks for the pump attendant network

Francis Pousse, the president of the service stations sector of the professional organization Mobilians, choked up following the comments of Élisabeth Borne. On September 12, he participated in a meeting called by Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the Minister of Energy Transition. When it came out, it warned against sales at cost prices.

A few days later, the lifting of the ban on loss-making sales went even further. “There is no question of selling at a loss. My members live 40 or 50%, or even more, from the sale of fuel. If they sell at a loss, I give them three months,” summarizes the man, who speaks for 5,800 traditional service stations (excluding supermarkets).

According to Mobilians, the pump attendants’ margin does not exceed two cents per liter. With 11,000 points of sale, the network has weaknesses. At 47%, it brings together mass retail stations, at the gates of supermarkets and hypermarkets, which account for 62% of fuel volumes. “Traditional” stations represent 53% of the network in the territories and hold 38% of the market. They cover two distinct realities: 30% of pumps under management, under contract with an oil company and located in busy areas, and 70% independent, under contract with an oil company or not, and over-represented in the rural sector where they deliver volumes. weaker. It is this last link in the chain that is worrying. In 2022, the rebate of 20, then 10 cents practiced by TotalEnergies until December 31 had already made it suffer.

3 – Oil on the rise, whether we like it or not

Invited by Bruno Le Maire, the Minister of the Economy and Finance, to recommit to this path, TotalEnergies promised to extend into 2024 if necessary the system it adopted last February in its 3,400 points sales: it caps the liter at €1.99. It’s a safe bet that this promise will be implemented almost everywhere in France. Because retail prices are caught in the inflationary spiral of oil prices.

After a slight decline for two weeks in August, the price of a barrel (159 liters) resumed its race towards the peaks, which began at the end of June. He has earned more than twenty dollars since then, around 19 euros. It is close to 95 dollars for the standard value (Brent from the North Sea), altitudes forgotten since November 2022.

Like all consumer countries, France is powerless in the face of this reality. Allies within the OPEC + group, Russia and Saudi Arabia are continuing their policy of reducing global supply. On September 13, the International Energy Agency warned of the risks of shortages for the fourth quarter of 2023: demand will exceed supply. Enough to make the prices crazy.

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