2023-11-21 17:21:52
Sunday’s takeover of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader is seen by the Houthis as a sign of an escalation of their attacks against Israel. But this assault in one of the most important areas of maritime trade could also have consequences for the global economy, believe several experts interviewed by France 24.
This is a new front in the war between Israel and Hamas which opened on Sunday November 19 with the seizure of the ship Galaxy Leader by the Houthis. By seizing the cargo ship by force, the group of pro-Iranian rebels operating in Yemen claimed to be targeting the interests of the Hebrew state, and gave this conflict a maritime dimension that it did not yet have until now.
The challenge of this new maritime dimension goes beyond regional borders. Israel, unsurprisingly, called on the Houthis to release this ship and its crew as quickly as possible. But the United States, the United Kingdom and Japan also echoed it. All these powers are concerned, at different levels, by the fate of this cargo ship which transported cars from Turkey to India.
Very strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait
This incident, which occurred near the very strategic Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, in the south of the Red Sea, can potentially “have global repercussions”, underlines Jan Stockbruegger, specialist in maritime security at the University of Copenhagen. “Nearly 57 supertankers leave the Gulf countries every day and pass through this strait to reach Asia. It is therefore one of the main bottlenecks in maritime energy trade,” underlines Antonio Gonçalves Alexandre , Portuguese specialist in international relations, who has been working since 2018 on maritime security in the Red Sea.
Certainly, the attack against the Galaxy Leader falls within the very specific framework of the war between Israel and Hamas. No impact, a priori, on world trade. But the choice of modus operandi, ship and place of boarding tells another story.
The attack on a ship in these waters “is not something fundamentally new in itself”, recognizes Danilo delle Fave, specialist for the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona on international security issues, who worked on the asymmetric warfare methods of Iranian-backed groups. The Houthis “have already seized ships [jamais israéliens jusqu’à présent, NDLR] off the Yemeni coast in the pastand Iran has been accused of using drones to attack Israeli boats”, lists Danilo delle Fave.
But the Houthis have decided to move up a gear this time. The spectacular video of the Galaxy Leader boarding from a helicopter, posted on social networks Monday, November 20 by Yemeni fighters “signals an intensification of attacks against Israeli interests”, assures Danilo delle Fave.
Read alsoIsrael-Hamas war: with the attacks of the Houthis in Yemen, the specter of an “escalatory logic”
It is no longer just a matter of sending missiles towards Eilat, a city in southern Israel, which Israeli anti-aircraft defenses have intercepted without much difficulty until now. “This time, the Houthis are demonstrating that they are ready to go into combat physically,” adds the ITSS Verona expert.
The type of operation – which mixes elements of maritime boarding with others specific to attacks from the air – was not chosen at random. “This is the first time that the Houthis have demonstrated that they are capable of such complex action,” underlines Jan Stockbruegger. “It’s their way of saying that they are not simple pirates, but have capabilities close to an army,” adds Danilo delle Fave.
Mille-feuille of nationalities
If the message is primarily intended for Israel, there is no doubt that it was also received five out of five by all the countries that have ships crossing the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, its extension. “Most of the companies that operate cargo ships in this region of the globe planned to defend themselves against possible attacks from pirates who use small, fast boats, but they did not think they would also have to protect themselves against threats from the sky,” notes Jan Stockbruegger.
Especially since the attack on the Galaxy Leader also demonstrates that the Houthis have a fairly broad acceptance of what constitutes an Israeli ship. Tel Aviv, in fact, claimed that there was nothing Israeli in this cargo… which is also not entirely accurate.
#Yemen here is how the Houthis with the means of the Yemeni state committed an act of maritime piracy in the Red Sea on 19.11 against the cargo ship owned by an Israeli businessman. This is as part of their support for #Hamas #Gaza pic.twitter.com/x0uvNpfz77
— Wassim Nasr (@SimNasr) November 20, 2023
In reality, the Galaxy Leader is flagged in the Bahamas, but is owned by Ray Car Carriers, a British company that owns a fleet of car carriers. This delivery to India was managed by the Japanese maritime giant Nippon Yusen (which belongs to the Mitsubishi conglomerate). It was he who hired the very international crew of the Galaxy Leader, made up of Bulgarians, Ukrainians, Romanians and even Filipinos. But no Israelis in the group.
In fact the only link with the Jewish state is the parent company of Ray Car Carriers, that is to say Ray Shipping, which belongs to Abraham Ungar, an Israeli national. This multitude of nationalities coexisting within the same carrier “is typical of the complexity of maritime freight”, underlines Jan Stockbruegger.
For him, the attack by the Houthis against the Galaxy Leader “will worry carriers around the world who will go through all the documents on their cargo ships to ensure that there are no potential links with Israel.” Between the crew, the cargo, the insurer or even the real owner of the ship, there are numerous possibilities of attracting the ire of the Houthi rebels, visibly quick to jump on the slightest link with Israel.
Global trade in danger?
As such, “the seizure of the Galaxy Leader can have significant consequences on all world trade because it de facto increases the risk for anyone who wants to pass a ship through the Suez Canal. A risk which can increase prices for everyone”, explains Basil Germond, specialist in maritime security issues at Lancaster University.
Indeed, insurers are not going to stand idly by in the face of the new threat posed by the Houthis to maritime trade. “They can take this threat into account by establishing the insurance premiums that they will set for cargo operators required to cross this strait,” explains Basil Germond. An increase in premiums “which will then be passed on to consumer prices all over the world”, summarizes Jan Stockbruegger.
It remains to be seen how nervous the hijacking of a single vessel can make insurers and others involved in maritime trade. For Jan Stockbruegger, the Houthis’ attack creates “an element of uncertainty over the risks incurred by ships passing through this region. This is what insurers hate.”
More optimistic, Danilo delle Fave believes that cargo operators and insurers will adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the hope of learning more about the Houthis’ intentions. Certainly, their statements are rather warmongering. They assured that this was “the beginning of their maritime war against Israel”.
But we must not forget that Iran, the main supporter of the Houthis, also has a say in the story. “Tehran does not necessarily have an interest in maritime trade in the Suez Canal being disrupted too much, because some of the oil and gas that passes through it is destined for China, which is Iran’s ally “, concludes Danilo delle Fave. Iran must still be able to control this new theater of military operations and the Houthi attack does not lead to a dangerous chain reaction.
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