8 hours ago
image source,AFP
South Korea’s birth rate drops again
In recent years, the danger and impact of China’s low fertility rate and population crisis have become a major topic of concern. However, South Korea, whose per capita income level and economic development level are higher than China’s, is also facing a huge population crisis, which most people may understand. not much.
According to data from the Statistics Korea, the total fertility rate in South Korea in 2021 will decrease by 3.4% year-on-year, and the actual birth rate will be 0.81, the lowest value since relevant statistics and the sixth consecutive decline.
The number of newborns in South Korea decreased by 4.3% year-on-year to 260,600, which also set a new record low. By comparison, the average birth rate in some of the world’s most advanced economies is still 1.6, well above South Korea’s.
South Korea began annual birth statistics in 1970, when the number of births exceeded 1 million each year.
However, after entering the 21st century, the number of births in South Korea fell sharply, falling below 600,000 in 2001, below 500,000 in 2002, less than 400,000 in 2017, and further down to less than 300,000 in 2020.
Negative population growth pressure
To keep the total population of a country at the same size, each couple should have at least two children, so that the population can be leveled without the need for immigration.
According to the definition of the United Nations, the total fertility rate refers to the average number of children born per woman of childbearing age, and a total fertility rate of 2.1 is the basic condition for maintaining intergenerational replacement and population stability.
According to the statistics of the International Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the fertility rate of economically developed countries has dropped significantly in the past 60 years.
But the trend is especially pronounced in South Korea. Household size in South Korea has shrunk dramatically over a few generations. In the 1970s, South Korean women had an average of four children.
South Korea now ranks last in TFR among the 38 OECD countries and is the only country with a TFR below 1.
In 2020, South Korea caused widespread shock when it recorded negative population growth for the first time in which the number of deaths exceeded the number of births.
A declining population of a country can bring enormous pressure. In addition to increasing pressure on public spending as demand for health care and pensions increases, the shrinking youth population will also lead to labor shortages, affecting the economy.
According to the United Nations and the World Bank, South Korea is the fastest-aging country among economies with a per capita GDP of more than $30,000. On the current downward trend, South Korea’s population will fall by 53% from current levels to 24 million by 2100.
The Bank of Korea has previously warned that South Korea’s economy faces the risk of prolonged stagnation as its population ages and productivity slows.
Why not give birth?
Analysis by BBC correspondent Jean Mackenzie in Seoul, South Korea:
A population crisis is brewing. If South Korea’s population continues to shrink, there won’t be enough manpower to develop the economy, take care of the aging population, and enlist in the military.
Politicians have known for years that this situation is imminent, but have been unable to address the declining population. The government has poured billions of dollars into trying to persuade people to have more children, to no avail, and it’s not clear why the encouragement doesn’t work.
Money is certainly a factor. Raising children in South Korea is expensive, and many young people struggle with astronomical housing costs.
Another factor relates to the issue of equality of opportunity.
Women in South Korea have higher education but are far from being treated equally in the workplace. South Korea has the highest gender pay gap of any rich country.
In Korea, where most of the housework and childcare are still performed by women, it is common for women to stop working or stagnate after giving birth.
Basically, many women in South Korea are still forced to choose between career and family. More and more women have decided that they don’t want to sacrifice their careers to have children.
As one woman said to me: “We are going on strike, not having children”.
international issues
According to official data from various countries, many countries with relatively high levels of economic development in the world have experienced negative population growth to varying degrees. For example, Japan in East Asia and Sweden, Denmark, Germany and other countries in Europe are facing similar situations.
It is reported that the fertility rates of the above-mentioned countries have fallen below 2.1. For example, the latest statistics from the World Bank show that the fertility rates of Japan, Sweden and Denmark are 1.3, 1.7 and 1.7 respectively.
According to the report “World Population Prospects 2022” released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, more countries will face the trend of population decline in the future.
However, the population of some parts of the world is still increasing.
Over the next 30 years, more than half of the population increase will take place in eight countries, largely in Asia and Africa – the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.