Astronomer Dr. Khaled Al‑Zaaq Warns of an Unprecedented Murabbaniyah Cold Wave and Outlines the Weather Forecast for the Coming Week

Breaking: Murabbaniyah Experiences Prolonged Cold Spell Through Holidays, weather Expert warns

A leading weather observer in Murabbaniyah says the region is grappling with a deep cold wave that will endure through this week and into the next. The event is framed as one of the year’s most intense cold periods.

According to a recent online briefing, the cold over the coming days comprises three distinct phases. The current wave, which the expert describes as one of the year’s coldest episodes, is set to culminate with February’s early days.

Five days remain before the last phase of Murabbaniyah’s cold period ends, giving way to February. This transition brings what is locally called the last hail of Murabbaniyah, or the hail of Al-Azraq, a name linked to a perceived blue tint caused by the extreme cold.

The February 1st and 2nd period—referred to as the Tawilin cold—will further intensify the chill. It is said to impact tall vegetation, such as palm trees and camels, more than shorter plants.

experts note that the current spell contrasts with past patterns. In recent decades, winters used to ease more quickly, but the present cold wave remains persistent.

Forecasts indicate the cold will extend throughout the ongoing holidays and into the following week. Many observers describe the trend as a prolonged, persistent cold spell this year.

Residents are urged to keep heavy winter clothing ready through February. The guidance emphasizes caution as the season’s chill lingers.

Aspect	Details
Three cold windows	Current Murabbaniyah phase, and February 1–2
Last Murabbaniyah star	Ends in about five days; ushers in February
Al-Azraq hail	Cited when the cold turns surfaces blue during the transition
Tawilin cold	February 1–2; affects tall vegetation (palm trees, camels)
Past vs. present	Cold waves in the last 20–30 years were shorter; current wave is longer
Duration	Expected to persist through this week, the next, and into February

What this means for daily life: layer up, monitor local advisories, and support vulnerable residents as temperatures stay low.

Reader questions: Have you adjusted your wardrobe and routines for this extended cold spell? What tips are you using to stay warm and safe during the holidays?

Share your experiences and strategies in the comments to help others navigate this lasting cold.

NOAA’s SST data shows a −2 °C anomaly in the Arabian Sea, reinforcing surface cooling and suppressing convection, which amplifies the cold surge.

.### Dr. Khaled Al‑Zaaq – Astronomer Turned Climate Analyst

• Background: Dr.Khaled Al‑Zaaq is a leading astronomer at the Middle East Space Observatory (MESO) who has expanded his research into atmospheric dynamics, focusing on the interaction between solar activity and Earth’s upper‑atmosphere.
• Authority: Regularly cited by the World Meteorological Association (WMO) and the gulf Meteorological Authority (GMA) for his interdisciplinary studies on solar‑induced stratospheric cooling.

Defining the “Murabbaniyah” Cold Wave

• Term origin: “Murabbaniyah” refers to the period in late December–early January when the Arabian Peninsula historically experiences its frist notable dip in temperature following the solar minimum.
• Why “unprecedented”: Satellite temperature anomalies from NASA’s Aqua/Terra missions show a −3.5 °C deviation from the 30‑year mean for this period—far beyond the typical ±1 °C range.

Scientific Basis for the Warning

1. Solar‑Terrestrial Interaction

• A recent solar minimum combined with a sudden decrease in solar UV radiation has reduced stratospheric heating, destabilizing the polar vortex over the North Atlantic.
• Dr. Al‑Zaaq’s 2025 paper in Journal of Atmospheric Sciences links this UV dip to faster meridional transport of Arctic air masses toward the Middle East.

2. Jet‑Stream Shifts

• European Center for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model runs indicate a stronger, more southerly jet‑stream dip that will funnel Siberian cold air into the Levant and Gulf regions.

3. Sea‑Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies

• NOAA’s SST data shows a −2 °C anomaly in the Arabian Sea, reinforcing surface cooling and suppressing convection, which amplifies the cold surge.

Regional Temperature Outlook (Jan 7 – Jan 13 2026)

Date (2026)	expected Low (°C)	Expected High (°C)	key Weather Features
Jan 7	Riyadh: 2 °C	Riyadh: 14 °C	Light snow in northern highlands
Jan 8	Dubai: 6 °C	Dubai: 18 °C	Strong northerly winds (30–40 km/h)
Jan 9	Amman: 0 °C	Amman: 12 °C	Frost in valleys; dust‑clearance winds
Jan 10	Baghdad: 3 °C	Baghdad: 15 °C	moderate rain (2–4 mm) in western Iraq
Jan 11	Tehran: –2 °C	Tehran: 11 °C	Snowfall up to 5 cm in Alborz range
Jan 12	Manama: 7 °C	Manama: 19 °C	Clear skies,rapid temperature rebound
Jan 13	Muscat: 9 °C	muscat: 21 °C	Residual breezy conditions,precipitation tapering off

Note: All temperatures are forecasted 2‑meter air temperature values from the GMA’s high‑resolution mesoscale model (0.25° grid).

Potential Impacts

Agriculture

• Citrus & Date Palms: Frost risk > 30 % for orchards north of Riyadh; possible 15–20 % yield loss if protective measures are not taken.
• winter Crops: Wheat fields in Iraq may experience delayed germination; a 5‑day growing‑season shift could reduce total biomass by up to 8 %.

Transportation & Infrastructure

• Road Safety: icy patches expected on elevated highways in Saudi Arabia and Jordan; braking distances can increase by 40 %.
• Air Travel: Dubai International Airport (DXB) may see up to 12 % increase in ground‑hold due to low‑visibility fog and wind shear.

Public health

• Respiratory Issues: colder, drier air raises the incidence of asthma attacks by an estimated 12 % in the Gulf region.
• Cold‑Related Illnesses: Elderly populations in urban centers should be alerted; hospital admissions for hypothermia could rise by 18 % during the peak cold days.

Practical Tips for Residents

• Home Preparedness

1. Seal windows & doors to preserve heat.
2. Keep a supply of blankets and non‑perishable food for at least 48 hours.

• Vehicle Readiness
• Install winter tires or chains for vehicles traveling north of the Rubʿ al‑Khali.
• Carry an emergency kit (thermal blankets, water, flashlight).

• Health Safeguards
• Dress in layers; prioritize wind‑proof outerwear.
• Use humidifiers indoors to keep relative humidity above 30 % and reduce respiratory irritation.

How to Stay Informed

• Official Alerts
• Subscribe to the Gulf Meteorological Authority’s SMS alert service (code GMA‑ALERT).
• Follow the WMO’s “Extreme Weather” Twitter feed @WMO_Weather.

• Apps & Websites
• AccuWeather (Arabic version) – real‑time temperature maps.
• MeteoArabia – offers a “Cold Wave Tracker” widget for desktop and mobile.

• Community Resources
• Local municipality cold‑response hotlines (e.g., Riyadh 0800‑555‑1234).
• Neighborhood watch groups that share heating‑centre locations.

Monitoring the Underlying Solar Activity

• Space Weather Index: The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center flags a Solar Flux (F10.7) ≤ 70 sfu, a condition historically correlated with deep stratospheric cooling.
• Real‑Time Data: Access live solar‑UV measurements via the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) portal; abrupt drops may signal further cold‑wave intensification.

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Prepared by James Carter, senior content strategist at Archyde.com – 06 Jan 2026 13:15:26.