The results of Attijariwafa bank, BCP, BMCI and Crédit du Maroc have regained altitude in 2021 without yet reaching the level of 2019. The quartet earned 7.7 billion DH in profits last year, up 71 %. Despite the turbulence that plagued the year, the 26.5% drop in the cost of risk and the 3% growth in net banking income sustained the performance of the four groups. But the threats are still alive in 2022 with the health crisis, drought and inflation. The risks surrounding economic growth are much higher than in previous months. Nothing is to be ruled out, not even a drop in GDP, some analysts imply.
For the four banking groups Attijariwafa bank, BCP, BMCI and Crédit du Maroc, cumulative profits rebounded by 71% to 7.7 billion dirhams. But they are still far from the 2019 level (-22%) due in particular to the disruptions that have slowed down the recovery in many sectors of activity. This is the case of the Tourism sector with the closing of borders to counter the spread of the Omicron variant. They must also come to terms with the rise in business insolvencies. Despite these setbacks, the recovery in economic activity resulted in an improvement in the cost of risk. Provisions, to deal with possible customer defaults and the deterioration of the economic outlook, decreased by 26.5% for the quartet to 9.7 billion dirhams. However, the cost of risk remains twice as high as before the health crisis. “These results are broadly in line with the exception of the BCP for which we anticipated a greater drop in the cost of risk,” notes an analyst.
For the mutualist group, the cost of risk has been reduced by 10% to 5.5 billion dirhams. Beyond this indicator, the dynamism of net banking income also supported the performance of banking groups. The vitality of household consumption and the surge in investment by private companies at the end of the year ensured good growth in net banking income, ie an increase of 3% to 50 billion dirhams. However, the return to normal hoped for in 2022 could be thwarted by the latest developments in Morocco and internationally. The threats surrounding growth are much higher than a few months ago with the drought and the acceleration of inflation.
“For every 10% change in agricultural GDP, the upward or downward impact can be estimated at around 1.5% growth in overall GDP. In 2022, GDP growth could therefore rise to 3.5%, instead of 3.9% initially forecast”, estimates Olivier Le Cabellec, economist of the Crédit Agricole group, in a note on Morocco.
Some analysts anticipate a drop of more than 20% in agricultural GDP, far from government forecasts. In general, the basic assumptions used to draw up the Finance Act are no longer relevant. The resurgence of inflation in recent months has led to demands that the government is trying to contain, notably with the announcement of several measures to protect household purchasing power. For growth in 2022, nothing can be ruled out, says a market professional. This context will not be without consequences on the performance of banks.
Frank Fagnon / ECO Inspirations