2023-10-17 15:20:30
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed an outlook for a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal in next three days (by Friday) even as watch for a similar rain-triggering system continues over the Arabian Sea. Initial predictions take the systems away from respectively the East and West coasts of the country, though a final word on the potential track is awaited.
The IMD said on Tuesday a preparatory cyclonic circulation over South-East Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep may deepen as a low-pressure area slightly away over South-East and adjoining East-Central Arabian Sea by Wednesday. It may move further away from the West Coast and intensify into a depression over Central Arabian Sea by Thursday.
Models hint at cyclone
Some weather models hint this may go on to become a cyclone, going away to Yemen/Oman. Meanwhile, another circulation lies over the South-East Bay and adjoining Andaman Sea. It is likely to initially move West-North-West and set up a low-pressure area over the central parts of the Bay the next day itself. This may intensify, but potentially track away towards Myanmar coast.
On Tuesday, satellite maps showed a trough running away from the Bay circulation towards South Coastal Tamil Nadu. A pre-existing and rain-generating cyclonic circulation over Coastal Tamil Nadu has merged with this trough. It was tipped to bring light to moderate rainfall at some/many places over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Kerala and Mahe and South Interior Karnataka with isolated heavy rain, accompanied with thunderstorms and lightning on Tuesday.
Rains seen returning
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has said this will bring the heaviest rain to Sri Lanka, while southern parts of Tamil Nadu and almost the entire adjoining Kerala may witness moderate to heavy rain returning after a break. The rains may become heavier over parts of southern Kerala, which are limping back from a bout of flooding rain received last week.
The 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning has already seen heavy rain at isolated places over South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. An extended outlook for Monday and Tuesday said scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall is over parts of Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and the Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Monsoon withdrawal status
On Tuesday, the line of withdrawal of the South-West monsoon now passed mostly through over the South Peninsula across Machilipatnam, Kurnool, Badami and Vengurla in South Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. It is now a matter of time before its complete withdrawal is announced, paving the way for the North-East monsoon over these parts.
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