A three-and-a-half-year camera trap survey across South Africa has revealed that the country’s wild cheetah population is drastically lower than previously estimated. While past projections counted 600 mature individuals, the rigorous field study puts the real total of adult free-roaming cheetahs as low as 83.
Millions of Images and AI Classification
Initiated and conducted by Ashia Cheetah Conservation, the Free-Roaming Cheetah Census utilized 389 camera traps managed by three dedicated field teams. Over the course of three and a half years, the equipment captured 5.2 million images of South Africa’s spotted big cats.
To process the massive volume of visual data, researchers deployed artificial intelligence to classify the images. However, technology required rigorous human oversight.
AI is great, but it’s only great about 70% of the time.
Marna Smit, project coordinator at Ashia Cheetah Conservation
Project coordinator Marna Smit explained to the Daily Maverick that human researchers still had to manually browse through millions of frames to verify the automated classifications. Amid the survey work, field teams also captured footage of an ultra-rare king cheetah—distinguished by unusual stripes on its coat—belonging to a group of four brothers.
Farmlands, Borders, and Livestock Blame
South Africa divides its cheetah population into four distinct categories: captive animals, those living in private game reserves and national parks, semi-protected groups inside Kruger National Park and Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park, and free-roaming populations scattered across private and commercial farmlands along the borders of Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe.
Smit and her team focused entirely on this final free-roaming group. Unlike big cats residing inside national parks, these cheetahs inhabit bits of open land, private farms, and remote communities, often coming into conflict with agricultural workers.
Farmers frequently blame cheetahs for disappearing livestock and resort to shooting them. According to Smit, however, the accusation is largely misdirected. Caracals and jackals typically target smaller livestock, while leopards prey on larger farm animals. Cheetahs frequently absorb the blame simply because they are more visible.
Setting a New Baseline for Conservation
Previous population models estimated that South Africa sustained roughly 600 mature free-roaming individuals. The recent camera trap analysis challenges those historical assumptions, indicating the actual total may be as low as 83 adults.
This is the first correct, or the most correct, baseline that we’ve ever had. Maybe we’ve always had low numbers and the estimates were ridiculously high.
Marna Smit, project coordinator at Ashia Cheetah Conservation
Assessing Habitat Space and Population Decline
With a reliable population baseline established, researchers can begin determining whether the species is undergoing an intense decline or if current numbers reflect the maximum capacity that fragmented habitats can support.
As Smit notes, investigators must now consider whether habitat fragmentation has simply left insufficient space for larger numbers of the shy, generally non-aggressive big cats to persist across the region’s commercial farmlands.
