2023-10-20 12:55:47
After several months of difficulty, the Canadian economy should be able to avoid a recession during the last two quarters of 2023, assessed the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB).
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The Canadian economy should therefore post weak growth of 0.3% in the third quarter before a slight rebound of 1.4% in the following quarter, according to their forecasts in collaboration with AppEco.
The inflation rate is also expected to increase slightly in the third quarter of 2023, before declining in the fourth quarter. However, it should remain above the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1 to 3%.
“It is possible that the Bank of Canada will consider increasing its key rate another time,” said Simon Gaudreault, chief economist and vice-president of research at the CFIB, on Friday.
“However, several indicators show a marked slowdown and the repercussions of previous increases have not yet fully materialized in the economy. Patience is therefore essential,” he added.
The vacancy rate is also expected to decrease, falling to 4.2% in the third quarter, which still represents 594,900 positions to be filled.
“The labor market should continue to soften, while employers have fewer positions to fill and employment is generally increasing,” analyzed Mr. Gaudreault.
In general, many Canadian SMEs rely heavily on holiday shopping to pay down debt and make up for lost revenue for the year.
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