Canadian exports to China have surged to record highs, driven by massive increases in energy and agricultural shipments, as Prime Minister Mark Carney prepares to visit Beijing ahead of the APEC summit to reduce Ottawa’s reliance on the U.S. market.
Total two-way trade between the two nations reached $36.78 billion in the third quarter of 2026, marking the highest quarterly level on record. CTV News reported that the numbers reflect a sharp turnaround from the diplomatic chill that followed the 2018 Huawei dispute.
Crude Oil and Agriculture Exports Surge to China
Crude oil exports to China jumped 159 per cent during the third quarter, averaging 327,000 barrels per day. Much of this energy boom stems from the additional export capacity provided by the Trans Mountain pipeline.
Agriculture shipments also posted steep gains following an agreement last January that secured lower Chinese tariffs on Canadian goods. Canola meal exports climbed to $360.3 million, pea shipments reached $147.6 million, and beef exports hit $181.4 million.
| Commodity | Recent Export Metrics | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil | 327,000 barrels/day (up 159%) | Trans Mountain pipeline capacity |
| Canola Meal | $360.3 million | Tariff reductions agreed in January |
| Beef Exports | $181.4 million | Renewed market access |
Alberta and Saskatchewan drove nearly 78 per cent of the overall provincial increase, according to figures compiled by the China Institute at the University of Alberta.
“Our exports are going to hit record highs this year, and the numbers are accelerating,” said Philippe Rheault, director of the China Institute, pointing to the impact of renewed bilateral engagement.
Deepening Economic Ties with Beijing Carry Historical Risks
Trade analysts warn that deepening economic ties with Beijing carries historical risks for Canadian producers. During a previous political dispute in 2024, nearly 70 per cent of Canadian canola seed exports went to China, giving Beijing substantial influence.
“In 2024, nearly 70 per cent of our canola seed exports went to China, giving Beijing significant leverage that it has used during political disputes,” said Vina Nadjibulla, CEO of the Centre for Strategic Statecraft, as reported by CTV News.
Carney leaves Wednesday for an extensive Asia tour that includes stops at the ASEAN summit in the Philippines, the APEC summit in China, and the Francophonie summit in Cambodia. Carney stated on Tuesday that Canada’s overall economic exposure remains limited and confirmed he intends to address security concerns directly with President Xi Jinping.
“The advantage of these meetings is you can raise issues directly and frankly, and I will be raising the importance with which we attach to the non-interference in our affairs by China and other countries,” Carney said.
