The 2021/22 agricultural campaign recorded rainfall which reached 188 mm at the end of April 2022, a decrease of 42% compared to the average of the last 30 years (327 mm) and 35% compared to the previous campaign ( 289 mm) on the same date.
In addition to the low rainfall et their delay, the rainfall profile was also characterized by poor temporal and territorial distribution. Nearly 55% of total rainfall occurred in March and April and less than a third of precipitation occurred in November and December.
The very low rainfall, or even its absence in several regions during the months of January and February, caused stress affecting the plant cover and a delay in the growth of autumn crops, especially cereals.
This period coincided with the tillering stage of cereals; a determining stage of development for the yields of these crops. Consequently, this stress led to a more or less significant drop in yields depending on the region, going as far as the loss of areas in certain areas.
It was in the favorable bour zones in the north of the country that cereals recovered well in the spring after the rains of March and April, resulting in a catch-up in terms of productivity.
Satellite image monitoring of the vegetation cover shows vegetation profiles that are generally similar to the 2015-2016 agricultural campaign.
Thus, the forecast production of the main cereals (soft wheat, durum wheat and barley) for the 2021/2022 agricultural campaign is estimated at 32 million quintals, i.e. a drop of 69% compared to the previous campaign which recorded a production among the records. This production results from a cereal area sown for this campaign of 3.6 million hectares of 3 cereal species.
By species, cereal production is as follows:
- 17.6 million Qx of soft wheat
- 7.5 million Qx of durum wheat
- 6.9 million Qx of barley.More than 60% of production comes from favorable areas in the regions of Fez-Meknes and Rabat-Salé-Kenitra. Cereals in irrigated areas only contributed about 20% to overall production, due partly to the limited irrigated area under cereals and partly to irrigation restrictions in the perimeters of large hydraulics. .Apart from cereals, the other crops are showing a favorable state. Indeed, overall, the cumulative rains since the beginning of March have contributed to the restoration of the plant cover to normal levels and ensured the smooth running of spring crops.Thus, it is expected that the sugar beet whose harvest has just started in several regions will record good yield performance. Citrus, olive and rosaceae in the flowering stage show good production prospects, although they remain dependent on the evolution of weather conditions, particularly the temperatures in May and June. In addition, this last rainy episode in March and April favored a good establishment of spring crops and seasonal market gardening crops as well as their development under favorable conditions.
Exports recorded good growth. Thus, citrus exports during the current campaign experienced a remarkable increase compared to the previous campaign, they reached 711 thousand tons, against 549 thousand tons the previous campaign, ie an increase of 30%.
Similarly, positive performances were also observed for fruit and vegetable exports with an exported volume exceeding 1.5 million tonnes, an increase of 16% compared to the last campaign. This good performance is due in particular to the increase in exports of various vegetables (+11%) and various fruits (+63%), in particular grapes, peaches, nectarines, organic avocados and melon, apricots, etc.
The situation of the livestock sector, thanks to the support provided to stockbreeders by the exceptional program to reduce the impact of the rainfall deficit, and the improvement of pastures and fodder resources for the spring season, has clearly improved. adjusted to maintain the performance of the sector as a whole.
The good forecasts for the performance of spring crops and the olive, citrus and market gardening sectors, combined with the support measures provided to stockbreeders and the rural economy in general within the framework of the exceptional program to reduce the impact of the rainfall deficit, will contribute to partially offset the effects of the fall in the production of autumn cereals, thus making it possible to limit the impact of the water deficit on the growth of the agricultural sector.
Taking all of these factors into account, the forecast estimates of agricultural GDP (GDP) forecast a maximum decline of around 14% in 2022 resulting from the exceptional performance recorded in the previous 2020/21 campaign and the unfavorable weather conditions of the campaign. current. The impact of this decline in GDPA on overall GDP should not exceed -1.7 points.