The afternoon of this Wednesday, January 12, will mark a new beginning for Grupo Empresarial Antioqueño (GEA). At that time, the public acquisition offer (OPA) that the Gilinski Group launched for Nutresa will end, a day after the same thing happened with the OPA for Sura. Without a doubt, one of the most important businesses in the recent history of Colombia, whatever happens.
The question is simple: Gilinski wants to get into the Antioquia castling of which Grupo Argos is also part. Its objective is to keep, at least, 50.1% of the 457,995,960 shares in circulation of Nutresa; while in Sura it aims at at least 25.344% and a maximum at 31.68% of the 467,909,675 ordinary titles.
For many, talking about these percentages is “a salute to the flag” because the group headed by magnate Jaime Gilinski could appeal to a different participation. As it has transpired, and according to information known to EL COLOMBIANO, the conglomerate would not accept less than 50.1% in Nutresa, while in Sura it would not frown on taking what they are given, even if it is below 25.344%.
Of course, there are those who have among their accounts that in the end Gilinski would not despise obtaining 30% or 40% in Nutresa, as that would give him a position on the company’s board and an important presence in the GEA. Anticipating this scenario, the multilatina de Alimentos has armored itself and moved the statutes to reduce the members of its board from eight to seven, a strategy that Sura could replicate. In any case, several things will change.
For example, if he were satisfied and took what he obtained in one or both takeover bids, Gilinski’s shadow would be latent in the GEA. In the event that it obtained 25% in Sura, it is not unreasonable to think that in the future the magnate will launch another takeover bid with improved conditions to get a larger slice in the investment management holding company.
Now, if in the end he is not satisfied and declines to accept less than what he was looking for, the shares will simply return to the hands of those who had agreed to sell; In this scenario, the market does not rule out that Gilinski will return with a stronger offer, or that another investor will arrive with the intention of buying.
The GEA moves
Sebastián Toro, founder of the financial education company Arena Alfa, says that regardless of the result of the takeover bids, big moves have come from the GEA. The market is waiting and rubs its hands.
First, the analyst recalls that once Argos and Sura decided to reject Gilinski’s offer for Nutresa (where they are main shareholders), they made important announcements about value maximization.
List the Cementos Argos subsidiary in the United States, on the New York Stock Exchange, which could be completed in the second half of this year; look for strategic partners; accompany Nutresa to participate in a market that has greater liquidity, group several of the assets that today operate independently to list them in global markets and improve dividends are some of the plans contemplated.
Toro believes that these are catalysts to boost the value of the GEA companies and that, yes or yes, they must be implemented at full speed. For him, Nutresa’s stock market future may be the United States, where food companies are better valued, and he also highlights other important movements such as the one Celsia (a Grupo Argos subsidiary) has to expand its operation.
Additionally, he believes that the shares of Sura and Nutresa in the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC) will also see important changes. Its new normality, whether or not there is a takeover bid, would be at least between 25,000 and 26,000 pesos per share. Although it is a price that does not quite reflect the value of those companies, it is higher than the one they brought before Gilinski appeared. With this, clearly, the market and the companies themselves win.
And it is worth remembering that on November 10 of last year, the last day in which the Colombian market was traded without the influence of the Gilinski takeover bid, the Nutresa title closed at $ 21,740, while that of Sura did so at $ 21,200. Once the takeover bids were launched, both have had significant variations and that is how at the end of the trading session last Friday they were $ 30,020 and $ 29,120, respectively.
The final stretch
What is coming now is the decisive period of the takeover bids. As analysts say, the greatest number of responses to these proposals has occurred in recent days, primarily because once a shareholder accepts, their titles are frozen, so most of them wait until the final stretch, analyzing what movements are in the pipeline. market.
One of the factors that go into such analysis is the exchange rate. The dollar started the year strong and for this weekend, for example, the Representative Market Rate (TRM) that governs is $ 4,043.46. Thus, Gilinski’s offers per share of Sura (US $ 8.01) and Nutresa (US $ 7.71) are equivalent today in Colombian pesos to $ 32,468.98 and $ 31,175.07
However, in takeover bids the payment of acquired shares can be made within three business days after the date on which the result of the transaction is reported to the market, so in the hypothetical case that Gilinski gives the green light to the process, the price per share in Colombian pesos could be even lower.
Until last Friday, the tycoon agreed to sell him 71,345,103 shares of Nutresa and 64,759,707 shares of Sura, representing 15.58% and 13.84% of the total ordinary securities in circulation of these companies (see Chart).
The expectation is total and in the next few days anything can happen. For example, in a recent report from the Colombian Stock Exchange it is observed that of the 5,048,071 Nutresa shares traded in December, 44.95% were acquired by foreigners and 16.73% by commission companies. Did they do it to sell to Gilinski? It is the question that remains in the air, according to financial advisor Andrés Moreno Jaramillo.
For now, it is expected to see what was the position of the pension funds, which are the main focus of the takeover bids after the refusal of Sura, Argos and Nutresa to sell the shares they have among themselves considering that the value offered It is not the one that corresponds. The minority shareholders, for their part, have made it clear that they support the GEA and their position is not to participate in the move, or at least that is how it was heard during the assemblies of the group’s companies in previous weeks.
The truth is that on Wednesday afternoon something will change in the GEA, which will have to bet on new business strategies to give value to its shareholders if it wants to strengthen the castling that today generates more than 83,000 jobs.
For Sebastián Toro, from Arena Alfa, there remains a great lesson: “there are many shares that are almost being given away in the Colombian market and investors are coming to take advantage of it. As long as everything is so cheap, we will continue to see other takeover bids “
ACCEPTANCE OF THE GILINSKI OPA
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