It has been more than half a year since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24. Recently, the situation has taken a turn for the worse. Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive to recover a large amount of lost territory, forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to announce a partial military mobilization, which is different from previous reports by Chinese media. Russia, the official WeChat account “Niu Danqin” with Chinese official background, admitted that Putin’s war mobilization means that Russia has come to the most dangerous time.
Niu Danqin issued an article on the 22nd alleging that now Ukraine is recovering its lost ground, it is obvious that Putin is now under great pressure, and his most severe test is coming. Russia has reached the most dangerous time, and is now fighting not only Ukraine, but the entire Western military machine. Putin even predicted that if it is not contained, the other side will move towards the Crimea peninsula and even the Russian mainland. To launch an attack, an emergency war mobilization must be ordered.
The article wrote that this is also the first time for Russia (including the Soviet Union) to mobilize for war after the end of World War II. For Putin, this is a critical moment, because even if Russia annexed the Crimea Peninsula in 2014, it did not order mobilization at that time. Niu Tangqin summarized the reactions of various countries at this stage. Only China reiterated the ceasefire negotiations, and the statements of other countries did not seem to show any signs of turning around.
For example, US President Joe Biden has indicated that he will not hesitate to continue to support Ukraine, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has accused Putin’s war mobilization as an act of desperation, and Russia cannot win the war. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed regret that Putin dragged Russia and his own youth into the quagmire of war, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian troops would continue to recover territory.
The article pointed out that more fierce fighting is bound to break out, because this is a battle of life and death. The Ukrainian army has recently launched a counter-offensive, and the territory recovered in 5 days is more than the territory occupied by the Russian army in the past 5 months. Shortage of troops. What’s more, in Putin’s dictionary, losing is not allowed. After some war mobilization, 300,000 reserve troops may go to the front line, which means that the number of front-line troops has more than doubled. The Russian army that has received a large number of supplements will launch a more intense attack, and special military operations will become a veritable war. .
The article continued, it is foreseeable that more soldiers will fall in a pool of blood; more families will lose sons, husbands, fathers; there may be more women and children, and their lives will end in 2022. The most severe test for Putin is that because the frontline battle is indeed unfavorable, and the West is pressing step by step, once Russia collapses, it will not only include his prestige and governance, but also Russia’s stability and unity. The worst result is that Russia really Like the Soviet Union, it fell apart again and fell into civil war.
The article mentioned that Putin hated the disintegration of the Soviet Union at the time. He must grit his teeth and fight the last stand, and the West will definitely not be intimidated by Russia. Military aid to Ukraine. If the war situation continues to stalemate, will Russia not rule out a full-scale war mobilization? So the allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will not end directly? Will there be unrest in Russia? Will it really fall into a total war or even a nuclear war?
The article emphasized that Putin underestimated the heavy price to be paid by Ukraine and Zelensky, this time issuing a partial military mobilization order, specifically mentioning the intention to use all available weapons. According to Putin’s logic, through the referendum, Donetsk and Lugansk were merged into Russia, and the Ukrainian army continued to fight, doesn’t it mean that this is an attack on Russia, and Russia may use nuclear weapons? So did NATO underestimate Russia and Putin? The consequences of the nuclear powers being cornered are unpredictable.
The article bluntly stated that despite this, the reality is cruel. Both sides are very clear that what cannot be obtained on the battlefield should not be expected to be obtained at the negotiating table. Therefore, one side is resolutely increasing its troops and producing more arms; the other side is stepping up its counter-offensive, asking the West to provide more heavy weapons, and the West will not give up the opportunity to completely weaken Russia. This situation will be very dangerous, Niu Danqin described: “1000 Kilometers of front, 1,000 kilometers of powder keg”.