By Maya Gebaili and Laila Bassam
TRIPOLI, Lebanon (Archyde.com) – The Lebanese elections are at stake. The armed group Hezbollah has seen one of its main opponents descend into chaos, offering it an opportunity to consolidate its grip on a divided country sinking into poverty.
But Abd al-Rahman Muhammad al-Mohammed, a field activist in Tripoli, will not vote.
“I won’t elect anyone,” he said, ignoring candidates’ banners hung on buildings in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city, ahead of the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 15.
Muhammad is Sunni, the traditional balancing force against the Iranian-backed Shiite group Hezbollah.
But, like other Sunnis, he is boycotting the elections after the sudden withdrawal of the traditional leader of his sect, Saad Hariri, a scion of the Hariri family with a long political history.
Rami Harrouq, 39, who lives in the Bab al-Tabbaneh area, Hariri’s stronghold in Tripoli, will also not participate. The other candidates were not impressed by the burns of the worker at the Pepsi plant, who has been exhausted by his country’s economic collapse.
He said, “The first thing we have is a lot of blame on the country’s politicians, especially in Tripoli. These two years that have passed for the citizens Shi Tater. Now what do you think of the ads and pictures – we want change and a better tomorrow. We don’t have anything to sell. We went through many experiences in the country.”
He added, “Of course, I will not vote.”
The abstention of many Sunnis from voting, as well as the fragmentation of their votes as a result of Hariri’s withdrawal from political life, may serve the interests of Hezbollah and its allies, which collectively won 71 of the 128 seats in parliament in the previous elections in 2018, according to some political experts.
“Saad Hariri’s withdrawal had a lot of impact on the Sunni street and the atmosphere of the elections,” said Ibrahim El-Gohary, a political analyst who was an advisor to Hariri during his tenure as prime minister. At least in the three big cities – Tripoli, Beirut and Sidon – which have a Sunni majority, in Lahd there is a kind of i’tikaaf from participation and even from movements,” noting that Hezbollah is now looking forward to obtaining two-thirds of the parliament’s seats, which is the limit that protects it and its allies from objecting to their decisions.
Hezbollah’s gains will reverberate beyond the borders of Lebanon, where seven million people live. Lebanon’s southern neighbor, Israel, considers it a threat to its security and has previously waged war against it. Washington, London and most of Europe classify it as a terrorist organization.
Such a political shift in favor of the movement will confirm Lebanon’s position within the regional sphere of influence of Iran, which is engaged in proxy wars with Saudi Arabia in various parts of the Middle East and is also in a confrontation with the United States.
Hezbollah occupies a unique position in Lebanese society. It commands an armed wing that some experts estimate has more equipment than the Lebanese army, and runs hospitals and schools, earning it the often-repeated description of “a state within a state.”
Hezbollah itself said it expected the composition of the new parliament not to differ much from the current parliament, and that it neither wanted nor expected to control two-thirds of the parliament. Its main Christian ally is widely expected to lose its seats.
But any unexpected takeover of parliament would give Hezbollah leverage over presidential elections later this year and economic reform bills requested by the International Monetary Fund, and could allow the constitution to be amended.
This could lead to the isolation of Lebanon at a time when it desperately needs international support. Three-quarters of the population lives below the poverty line amid an economic collapse that many blame on political paralysis and corruption.
It is customary for political loyalties in Lebanon to be divided in a sectarian manner, and power in the country is divided between Muslims and Christians with a complex system aimed at maintaining a balance between the factions that took up arms against each other in the past.
* “The loss we are in”
When Hariri announced in January that he was withdrawing from political life and that he and the Future Movement would not participate in the elections, it was widely seen as a boycott by a heavyweight political bloc.
The move, which shocked supporters and rivals alike, ended years in which Hariri faced political difficulties. His decline in fortune reflects the deterioration of his relations with Riyadh, which cut ties with him when Hezbollah’s influence grew in the country.
Fouad Makhzoumi, a Sunni businessman, a member of parliament and a candidate in the upcoming elections, said, “Amidst the loss we are in, we must not forget that in Beirut since 92, one name called Hariri used to be heard separately from Rafik or Saad, his name was Hariri. There is one name. Hariri does not exist. What?” do? Boycott for the benefit of Hezbollah? The void must be filled.”
Rafik Hariri was prime minister and was assassinated in 2005.
The Future Movement did not officially announce a boycott of the elections, but its banners and posters in its strongholds in Beirut urge people to do so, and its supporters posted tweets on Twitter with the same message.
Kamal Feghali, an independent electoral expert, said that voter turnout is expected to be low, especially in Sunni-majority neighborhoods.
He told Archyde.com that nearly 30 percent of those who voted in the 2018 elections in these areas said they would not participate this year, with the highest percentage in Tripoli, compared to an average turnout of 20 percent at the state level.
Mustafa Alloush, a founding member of the Future Movement, told Archyde.com he understood the street’s discontent, but a boycott was not the solution.
Alloush, 64, resigned from the party, postponed his retirement plans and chose to run as an independent because he feared Hariri’s withdrawal would provide an opportunity for a Hezbollah-backed list to take control of parliament seats.
He said, “The most important and dangerous thing in politics is Hezbollah’s infiltration more and more into the Tripoli arena and the north in general, as it infiltrates all areas where the majority of the Future Movement was.”
The call of the Mufti of the Republic
Sunnis and Shiites each represent just under a third of Lebanon’s population, while Christians represent about 40 percent. Under the electoral law, candidates cannot run as individuals but on lists.
In the Sunni-majority north of Tripoli, Akkar, the Future Movement won five out of seven seats in 2018, and four of the winners are running again on two different lists.
As the vote approached, prominent Sunni figures sought to focus on increasing nationwide participation.
Bahaa al-Hariri, Saad’s older brother and political rival, founded a movement known as “Sawa le Lebanon” (Sawa for Lebanon), which broadcast advertisements on radio stations encouraging people to vote without specifying preferred candidates.
In April, the Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdel Latif Derian, called in a sermon for all Lebanese to cast their votes.
The core political analyst estimates that Sunnis whose votes have been scattered may lose at least six seats, or at most eight, to Hezbollah “without doing anything.”
Hezbollah would have to gain 86 seats to secure a two-thirds vote in parliament, which would protect it from any objection from the “blocking third”.
A Hezbollah source said the group had not yet determined who it would support as Lebanon’s president and said it supported talks with the International Monetary Fund but was opposed to any “conditional” aid.
The source added that Hariri’s withdrawal may represent an opportunity for Hezbollah’s allies.
“This is normal and logical,” he added.