Event: Listed insurance companies disclosed the premium data for the first two months of 2022. The cumulative original premium growth rate and the corresponding income ranking are as follows:PICC(17% to 159.2 billion yuan),China Pacific Insurance(6% to 104.8 billion yuan),New China Insurance(5% to 46.4 billion yuan),Ping An(1% to 183.2 billion yuan) andChina Life Insurance(-5% to RMB 241.2 billion). Both the volume and price of auto insurance premiums rose, and the decline in new life insurance orders continued.
Comments:
Life insurance: Under the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the growth rate of new orders and value in a single month in February picked up slightly, but it is still difficult to change the trend. In February 2022, the single-month original premium growth rate of life insurance is as follows: PICC Life and Health (19%), CPIC Life (15%),New China Insurance(11%)、China Life Insurance(-3%) and Ping An Life and Health (-5%). PICC Life continued to rely on single premiums to drive a high year-on-year increase in new orders. The growth rate of monthly regular payments turned positive from -13.5% in January to 11.7%, but there was still a 10.2% gap in regular payments in the first two months.Leading insurance companies rely on bancassurance channels to quickly make large-scale premiums, and use volume to supplement prices to support the whole yearperformanceTarget, Ping An New Bancassurance team expands in an orderly manner. The company expects the number of exclusive teams to reach 2,000 by the end of the year, which is a useful attempt in the continuous downturn of personal insurance; CPIC Life restarts bancassurance business department, and is expected to contribute to new bancassurance orders in 2022Q1 Close to half of the country.CPIC Jinfu · Family FuninsuranceThe product plan is launched, and the highlight of the product is to add insurance for old customers, provide 8/13/18 payment methods, and provide double compensation for 20 specific critical illnesses.We expect the cumulative NBV growth in the first two months to beChina Life Insurance(-19%), Ping An Life and Health Insurance (-30%), PICC Life (-30%),New China Insurance(-34%) and CPIC Life (-46%).
At present, the main contradiction of life insurance products is the contradiction between the diversified needs of policyholders and the unbalanced and insufficient products and services. There is still room for improvement and improvement in the customer-centric goal.
The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice on the expansion of exclusive commercial pensionsinsuranceNotice of the scope of the pilot, from March 2022, exclusive commercial pensioninsuranceThe pilot area was expanded to the whole country. We expect that the loosening of policies on the product side of the third pillar is worth looking forward to. During the National Two Sessions, “Benefiting the People’s Insurance” and “Endowment Insurance” became the hotly debated keywords among the participating experts. It is worth noting that the epidemic has spread across the country since March 2022, which may drag down the recovery process of new life insurance policies.
Property and casualty insurance: Traditional leading insurance companies have a good growth momentum in premiums and continue to lead the market. In February 2022, the original premium growth rate of property insurance for the month is as follows: CPIC Property & Casualty (23%), Ping An Property & Casualty (18%), PICC Property & Casualty (13%),ZhongAn Online(3%). In February, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the “Implementation Rules for the Management of Insurance Companies’ Non-life Insurance Business Reserve Funds”, which aims to improve the scientific, rational and systematic supervision system. The artificial adjustment under the new regulations is more difficult, which is beneficial to the leader of standardized operation. insurance company. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of PICC P&C auto and non-auto insurance premiums was 14.6% and 12.8%, respectively, and the proportion of non-auto business decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to 54.7%. Since October 2021, PICC Property & Casualty’s monthly auto insurance premium growth rate has maintained a double-digit monthly average, and has shown a trend of accelerating month by month. We believe that the main system has been reformed for more than a year, the pressure on premium growth has slowed down, and the market competition pattern Improvement, the average car insurance premiums showed signs of recovery. The local regulatory guidance on the speed limit of auto insurance remains unchanged, further forcing leading insurance companies to focus on high-quality home car business. The spread of the epidemic across the country reduces the frequency of auto insurance trips. We expect that the auto insurance underwriting profit of listed insurance companies in 2022Q1 will still improve year-on-year.
Investment advice: the first recommendation in the insurance sector【China Property & Casualty Insurance]. We believe that the fundamentals of the property and casualty insurance sector in 2022 will be better than that of the life insurance sector. The recovery of the national economy in January-February 2022 was better than market expectations. In the first two months of 2022, social zero increased by 6.7% year-on-year, 2.8 pct. faster than the average two-year growth rate in 2021, demonstrating the resilience of residents’ consumption and the subsequent recovery of premium demand. Still worth looking forward to.In the short term, affected by the sharp fluctuations in domestic and foreign capital markets, the P/EV valuation of listed insurance companies is at a historically low level.China Property & Casualty Insurancefollowed by recommendedPing AnandChina Pacific Insurance。
Risk reminder: 1) The economic recovery is less than expected, suppressing insurance demand; 2) Long-terminterest rateDownward and equity market fluctuations affect the investment side; 3) The transformation effect of insurance companies is less than expected.
(Article Source:Soochow Securities）