Copper Price Nears Record High on Falling Global Inventories and 10-Week Winning Streak

Copper ticked ever closer towards a record high on Friday and was set to post a 10th straight weekly rise, as thinning inventories outside the U.S. supported prices. While available London Metal Exchange inventories stood at 117,600 tonnes, shifting macroeconomic pressures and ballooning domestic U.S. stocks redefined global trade flows.

The Anatomy of a Ten-Week Rally and the U.S. Tariff Premium

Here is why that matters for industrial supply chains: traders aggressively rushed metal into the United States. They raced to beat potential import tariffs, driving U.S. copper imports in July to their highest level on record. This localized accumulation tightened the market elsewhere, creating an acute geographic divergence in the physical market.

Inventories outside the U.S. thinned out rapidly to feed this American demand.

Inventory Shifts and Transnational Divergence

As the U.S. market absorbed incoming shipments, the depletion picture in Asia shifted dramatically. Data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that copper inventories fell 13% week-on-week, landing at 63,000 tons. That marks the lowest domestic warehouse stock level recorded in Shanghai since January 2024.

Simultaneously, London Metal Exchange stocks dipped by 475 tons, accompanied by active orders to withdraw another 1,550 tons from the system.

“The tariff uncertainty should continue to support copper, although already elevated prices are likely to limit near-term gains,” analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, noted.

Macroeconomic Crosscurrents and the Resurgent Dollar

Geopolitical maneuvering rarely happens in a vacuum. Beyond warehouse ledgers, currency markets delivered a sharp reminder of how macroeconomic policy dictates commodity valuations.

Photo: mining.com

The U.S. dollar strengthened following a robust employment report showing that American employers added more jobs than expected in August. Because globally traded copper is denominated in U.S. dollars, a stronger greenback immediately rendered the metal more expensive for international buyers using foreign currencies, accelerating the late-week pullback.

At the same time, adjacent industrial metals experienced divergent fortunes across global exchanges. Aluminium slipped 0.5% to $3,295 a metric ton as the cash-to-three-month spread flipped back into a slight contango, signaling more relaxed near-term availability.

“We remain neutral to constructive near-term given low visible inventories and a still-tight physical market,” Citi observed in a note regarding aluminium, warning that market balances will likely face structural challenges over the next six to twelve months as ex-China supply growth accelerates.

Global Metals Market Snapshot

Metal	Exchange / Benchmark	Recent Movement	Market Dynamic
Copper	LME 3-Month (CMCU3)	Set to post 10th straight weekly rise	U.S. tariff-driven inventory drain
Aluminium	LME Cash-to-3M (CMAL3)	Slipped 0.5% to $3,295 / ton	Flipped to slight contango
Zinc	LME 3-Month (CMZN3)	Added 0.8% to $3,943.50 / ton	Steep backwardation at $152/ton
Lead	LME Benchmark (CMPB3)	Up 0.3% to $1,909 / ton	Active withdrawals of 8,450 tons

The Broader Geopolitical Horizon

As international trade policies intersect with raw material extraction, the structural fault lines in global supply chains become impossible to ignore.

With U.S. trade policy remaining an unpredictable variable and warehouse inventories stretched thin across both hemispheres, industrial consumers face a complex balancing act. Navigating these turbulent markets requires looking past short-term price corrections and tracking the underlying geopolitical frictions shaping the future of global commerce.

How do you view the impact of tariff-driven stockpiling on your local industrial sector? Share your perspective in the comments below.