Covid-19: should we fear a new wave in the spring?

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Overshadowed by the war in Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic is generating increasing cases in Europe. However, it is difficult to predict the extent and especially the severity of a new wave.

France, like Germany, Switzerland or Italy, is once again facing a daily increase in Covid-19 cases. Messages published on March 12 by Eric Topol, a researcher at the Scripps Research Institute in the United States, made the rounds of the media.

“The next wave in Europe has begun,” he said on Twitter, supporting curves. In many European countries, the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron is reportedly taking over from its close cousin BA.1. Both are classified as “worrying” by the World Health Organization (WHO).

For its part, China, which claimed the “zero Covid” strategy, is finally overtaken by the variant Omicron, particularly contagious. Some 30 million Chinese are currently confined and this would be the worst epidemic resurgence since the first wave of 2020.

A rebound in the epidemic observed in France

In France, while many restrictions related to Covid-19 have been lifted in the run-up to the presidential election, the epidemic is gaining momentum. More than 98,104 new cases were identified on Saturday March 19 according to Public Health France, even though the Omicron variant represented 99.7% of the viruses sequenced at the beginning of March.

For its part, the Regional Health Agency in Occitania recalled that “the epidemic is starting to rise again” in its bulletin dated March 18. This despite a gradual improvement in the hospital situation although 1,824 patients remain hospitalized for the time being.

The ascension of the BA.2 variant

The hybrid variants of Covid-19 keep talking about them while the BA.2 variant is now the majority in France, representing 57% of coronavirus cases last week. This sub-lineage of Omicron has therefore become the majority in new contaminations on the territory and has an increased transmissibility of 30% compared to its “cousin” BA.1.

To stem this epidemic resumption, the Scientific Council still recommends that fragile people wear a mask in closed places or in communities, while ARS Occitanie insists on respect for barrier gestures.

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