At the dawn of the sixth wave of COVID-19 in Quebec, Ottawa is preparing for two possible avenues regarding the evolution of the pandemic in the country. But no scenario anticipates the end of the spread of the virus “in the foreseeable future”.
“Yes, we know that the virus and the pandemic — at least the circulation of the virus here, in Canada, and around the world — will continue for a long time. [Ces] two scenarios are always [conformes] with the idea that the virus stays with us, ”says the Dr Howard Njoo, Deputy Chief Federal Public Health Officer
At the end of a week in which Quebec experienced an increase of almost 35% in the number of cases of COVID-19, federal public health did not deliver precise predictions as to the expected evolution of the pandemic; some of his previous estimates were also shown to be erroneous. Officials from the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) instead presented two forms that the pandemic could take in the country, according to them.
According to a first scenario, described as “realistic”federal public health expects waves of infections to continue to sweep across the country as new variants appear and immunity wanes over time. It would be possible to expect such waves as early as this spring, then in the fall and next winter. According to this prediction, transmission of the virus would continue at a “low to moderate” rate for the months and years to come.
A worst-case scenario — “less likely, but still possible” — is also being investigated by PHAC: the emergence of a concerning new variant that evades previous immunity and causes more severe disease.
According to the Dr Njoo, only such a scenario would justify a return to more drastic public health measures. “I think with the more optimistic scenario, it’s possible to manage the situation, to maybe not have restrictions, like before. Corn, as the D saidr Boileau in Quebecall options are on the table if we [se retrouve avec] the worst,” he warns.
The federal government thus indicates that it is preparing for the possibility of the discovery of a variant which would completely escape the immunity conferred by vaccines, for example, and which would cause more serious consequences on health.
The BA.2 variant on the rise
Authorities are seeing a steady rise in the Omicron sub-variant, called BA.2, since January in the country. This variant would be more contagious than Omicron (called BA.1), but would not cause more risk of hospitalization and would benefit from equivalent protection from vaccines.
“In Quebec, what I see is that the resurgence of BA.2 is greater in the regions less affected by the wave before, of BA.1 [Omicron]. It may be possible that an infection of BA.1 gives some protection, some immunity, against the BA.2 variant for a while,” says Dr.r Njoo. He indicates that this immunity “does not last for life”, but rather estimates it at “a few months”.
According to experts consulted by The dutyreinfection with BA.2 is indeed possible.
The sixth wave officialized in Quebec, would not have yet arrived everywhere in Canada, since the pandemic takes different forms from one region to another of the country, it is indicated. Monitoring for traces of the virus in the sewers of Ottawa, for example, seems to show a significant increase in the number of cases in the federal capital, while they indicate a drop in Saskatchewan.
“We can expect more ups and downs in the months ahead,” Chief Public Health Officer Dr.re Theresa Tam. She asks people to exercise caution during religious holidays in the coming days, including Easter and Ramadan.
Data available to federal public health indicate that even today, fully vaccinated people have a four times lower risk of hospitalization than unvaccinated people. The risk is even lower among those who received a booster dose, which is 10 times less than the non-vaccinated, these figures show.