New spring, new variant, new wave. Quietly for the time being, a tenth wave of Covid-19 contaminations is confirmed. If they remain at relatively low levels, the indicators have been rising for several weeks. But this has, to date, no impact on the hospital.
Thus, according to data from Public Health France published on Thursday, the incidence rate was 81 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in week 12, up 16% over one week. For comparison, it was 38 in early March (week 9) and has been rising ever since.
If we take the test positivity rate, it is now 16.6%, compared to 7.4% at the beginning of March. The effective reproduction number (the famous R) is currently 1.24 – down slightly by 0.02 points over a week – which means that 100 infected people infect an average of 124 people.
A new, more contagious Omicron sub-variant
This new wave coincides with the progression of a new Omicron sub-variant, XBB.1.5, which is gradually replacing BQ.1.1, responsible for the previous wave. XBB.1.5 is now in the majority, with 59% of the genetic sequences produced in France, compared to 55% at the beginning of March.
Public Health France, in an update on emerging variants published on March 22, points out that XBB.1.5 “seems to benefit from a growth advantage, which could be linked to a significant immune escape (common to all XBB) and to a increased transmissibility conferred by a mutation of its Spike protein”. “However, it has a severity similar to the other circulating variants”, underlines the public agency.
Thus, this new wave has for the moment no consequences on the hospital. On the contrary, last week, while emergency room visits for suspected Covid were up 14%, new hospitalizations were down 11% and new admissions to critical care services were down 30%.
A new call for vaccination of the most vulnerable
Faced with this situation, Public Health France stresses that “the level of vaccine boosters adapted to the Omicron variant remains insufficient”. As of March 27, only a quarter of those over 80 and over had received this type of injection, and just over 23% of those aged 60-79. All vaccines combined (adapted to Omicron or not), “25% of 60-79 year olds had received an injection less than six months old and 7.1% of 80 year olds and over a dose less than three months old”.
On Wednesday, the WHO changed its recommendations on the Covid vaccination and said that healthy adults no longer need a booster vaccination if they already had a complete initial regimen and a booster shot. On the other hand, it confirmed the importance, for the most fragile, of receiving boosters at regular intervals so that they maintain sufficient immunity.