Most of the time, this type of debris disintegrates on contact with the atmosphere. But the debris Wentian are, however, of great magnitude. They are about fifty meters long and weigh about twenty tons… A little too big to disappear into the atmosphere.
Specialists predict that between 20% and 40% of the object’s mass should resist the passage of the atmosphere by breaking up into several pieces of debris: “It is a 20 ton metallic object. Although it breaks up upon entering the atmosphere, many pieces, some quite large, will reach the surface“, says Michael Byers, professor at the University of British Columbia, specialist in the risks associated with space debris.
Many pieces, some quite large, will reach the surface.
Scientists do not yet know where the pieces of this rocket will fall.
According to their research, the place of landing would be in the North Atlantic Ocean, on the same latitude than large cities like Beijing or Rome.
There is a good chance that the debris will fall into the ocean, but the precise point of the impacts will only be known a few hours before the debris enters the atmosphere.
There is therefore little chance that these rocket pieces will injure people. Scientists estimate on average that there are 80,000 times more risk to be struck by lightning than to be struck by objects re-entering the atmosphere.