The price of the dollar in Peru closed lower on Thursday, in line with its regional peers, and hitting a new low of eight and a half months.
The exchange rate ended the day trading at S/ 3.74, a drop of 1.70% compared to Wednesday’s close, at S/ 3,805, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCR).
With this performance, the US currency hit a new low of eight and a half months, since May 20, when it was traded at S / 3,719.
So far this year, the greenback accumulates a decrease of 6.28% compared to the price at the end of 2021, at S / 3,991.
During the day, the issuing entity only auctioned overnight deposits for S/ 12,800 million at an average interest rate of 2.97%.
What is this performance due to? In dialogue with Managementthe Scotiabank Analyst, mario warrior, explained that heThe drop in the exchange rate registered today -which at times reached S/ 3.71- is due to the expectation of investors that the BCR will raise its reference interest rate today, which prompts them to exchange their dollars for soles.
“In general, we have seen a decline in currencies not only in Peru but in the region as a whole. This is a movement that is more due to regional factors and has to do with the fact that there has been a relatively low volume traded yesterday and today of a greater offer from local agents, such as mining companies.”, he mentioned.
Next, he said that the main factor that is explaining this trend of the strengthening of Latin American currencies -such as the Peruvian sol- is the difference in interest rates, which is related to the position of the central banks.
“We see central banks in Latin America with much firmer and more determined positions regarding fighting inflation and therefore they are raising their reference interest rates more aggressively. We see it in the central banks of Chile, Brazil and even from January in Peru, which changed its position to a firmer one and rose by 50 basis points. We expect it to rise 50 basis points more today. In short, the central banks of Latin America are raising the yields of the assets of their countries”, narrowed down
He said that this situation is attracting capital, which in comparison to the United States is not having the same tone. “The Fed is taking time to adjust its monetary policy. In October, it began to withdraw the stimulus, but as of February, it has not yet made a decision regarding the interest rate, which is only expected to begin to rise from March.”, he stressed.
On the other hand, in the parallel market or the main exchange houses, the dollar was bought at S / 3,730 and sold at S / 3,790, according to data from the portal cuantoestaeldolar.pe.
At the regional level, Latin American currencies appreciated against the dollar on Thursday, despite the fact that higher-than-expected inflation data from the United States favored a further tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
According to the Archyde.com agency, consumer prices in the United States rose 0.6% in January, more than expected by the market and in its highest annual advance in inflation in 40 years, which could encourage speculation about an increase of the 50 basis point interest rate next month, when the Federal Reserve’s monetary policymakers meet.
“The behavior of currencies in Latin America is responding to the crisis in Eastern Europe with the possible conflict between Ukraine and Russia”, said Ana Vera, chief economist of Inon Capital SA
“In recent weeks we have seen record outflows of investment flows from that region of the world. Additionally, at the rate level, Latin American countries are offering high investment rates in contrast to the risks, mainly in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.to,” he added.