Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in an increasingly tight 2026 U.S. Senate race.
Primary Battlegrounds and Outside Spending Surges
The race takes shape after Ken Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Republican Senate primary in May 2026. Following an endorsement from President Donald Trump, Paxton won the runoff decisively.
Yet that victory left national Republicans confronting an unexpected financial drain in a deep red state. A Republican super political action committee spent approximately $131 million in independent expenditures over 17 days supporting Paxton’s bid, averaging about $7.7 million per day according to Federal Election Commission filings. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Majority Leader John Thune, spun off Texas PAC in September, which has quickly spent $122 million to aid Paxton, per AdImpact. Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist who previously worked on Cornyn’s campaign in the 2014 election cycle, noted that local donors are likely glad to see resources directed back to the state rather than acting merely as an automated teller machine for the national party.
Republican-aligned groups are expected to spend more than $300 million across the full Texas contest. That massive sum has eclipsed spending in competitive races elsewhere, with groups planning to spend $166 million in Texas from September through Election Day—more than they are set to spend in Michigan and Maine combined, according to CNN.
Polling Pressures and Campaign Financial Disparities
Polls showing a tight race have forced reluctant donors to reconsider their stance. For months, Republican donors insisted they did not want to bankroll Paxton’s race after Trump endorsed him over Cornyn, arguing that bailing out the nominee was the president’s responsibility. As polls deteriorated in the weeks ahead of the midterm election, many of those same donors dropped their objections to keep the Senate by whatever means necessary.
Surveys conducted in September reflected a competitive contest. Among likely voters, the Democrat held a 6-point advantage as a New York Times/Siena University poll put Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 45 percent. Other firms found similar leads, with YouGov, Fox News, and New York Times/Siena polls showing Talarico ahead by between 2 and 6 percentage points. Furthermore, a RealClearPolitics average for surveys between September 8 and September 26 placed Talarico at 47.6 percent against Paxton at 44.7 percent, creating a 2.9-point Democratic advantage, while a Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,007 likely voters from September 19 to 22 showed Talarico leading narrowly.
Official campaign finances revealed a sharp contrast earlier in the cycle. Paxton’s campaign brought in $9.15 million, whereas Talarico’s campaign raised $31.85 million according to FEC data through June 30. The same filings indicated that 55 percent of Talarico’s funding originated within Texas, while approximately 82.9 percent of Paxton’s fundraising came from inside the state. A leaked fundraising memo obtained by Punchbowl News noted that Paxton’s team has spent or reserved about $20 million, while Talarico’s campaign has spent or reserved $65 million in advertising at lower rates.
Audio Leaks and Campaign Friction
National Republicans have spent months trying to rescue Paxton, but closed-door comments have strained those efforts. Tensions brewed after the publication of Paxton’s remarks suggesting that Washington Republicans were largely controlling his race. In a recorded audio session from a fundraising gathering last month, the nominee told donors that he had never felt less control over his own operation.
One Republican involved in the Paxton rescue effort stated that Paxton is welcome to raise his own money and say whatever he wants, adding that if he did that, he would probably be winning right now and they would not need to spend all this money.
Other strategists were equally critical of the candidate’s public posture.
This just seems like Paxton preparing to blame others for what might be one of the most embarrassing defeats in modern political history.
Carlos Curbelo, former Florida GOP representative, via Yahoo
Meanwhile, Paxton allies brushed off the closed-door comments, explaining that he referred to super PACs that candidates are legally barred from coordinating with. Campaign adviser Nick Maddux responded to initial reports by emphasizing the candidate’s appreciation for outside backing.
AG Paxton is thankful for the support and knows how important Texas is to keeping the majority, which is why he’s on the ground every day.
Nick Maddux, campaign adviser, via Yahoo
Spanish-Language Advertising and Voter Outreach
Despite the historic influx of general election spending, ad-buying patterns revealed potential vulnerabilities in minority outreach. Since the start of September, Paxton-aligned groups bought $188 million worth of advertisements, but only $4.2 million, or about 2 percent, went toward Spanish-language ads, according to AdImpact. Angie Gutierrez, a University of Texas at Austin professor who participated in previous presidential campaigns, noted that Spanish-language ad buys perform multiple critical functions for electoral outreach.
That lack of pro-Paxton commercial presence on Spanish television and radio worried Republicans who fear that recent GOP gains among Latino voters across the Rio Grande Valley, border regions, and metro suburbs are at risk. Virtually no financial backing came from Paxton or his allied groups, whereas Talarico allocated $2 million, making him the sole Senate candidate with any Spanish media presence during the majority of the general election cycle. While pro-Paxton Spanish ad spending later reached $4.2 million in September, outpacing the $2.6 million spent on pro-Talarico ads, candidates enjoy discounted rates under federal law that make candidate-funded ads stretch further than super PAC expenditures.
Paxton maintains a net worth estimated by Forbes at roughly $13 million spread across mutual funds, real estate in five states, and a state pension, alongside assets placed in a blind trust. His Democratic challenger, James Talarico, previously worked as a public school educator and teacher from 1991 to 2017 according to his LinkedIn profile, and took office in the Texas Senate in January 2019 following his election in November 2018.
