2023-08-02 03:00:14
This Wednesday, we will have exhausted the natural resources that the planet can produce for one year. It’s “overshoot day”. A relevant indicator?
This Wednesday, August 2, humanity will have consumed all the resources that the Earth is capable of producing in one year. It’s the “Overshoot Day” (Earth Overshoot Day). For the remaining 151 days of the year, we will therefore live in an ecological deficit. Concretely, what does this concept mean? What are his limits? We take stock.
How is the “Overshoot Day” calculated?
Each year, the NGO Global Foodprint Network calculates the “Overshoot Day” at the global level. It compares – using data mainly from national accounts – the ecological footprint (i.e. the areas needed to produce the resources consumed and to absorb the waste of the population) to Earth’s biocapacity (the estimated capacity of ecosystems to regenerate and absorb human-generated waste, including CO2 sequestration).
More specifically, the ecological footprint is made up of six categories: crops, pasture, forest areas, fishing areas, built-up areas and the carbon footprint – or the forest areas needed to absorb the carbon emitted by the combustion of fossil fuels. The latter alone constitutes the major part of the ecological footprint.
We are talking about overshoot when this ecological footprint, humanity’s demand for biological resources, exceeds the Earth’s capacity to regenerate them during the year.
On August 2, 2023, we therefore reach the limit of the natural capital available to the planet. In other words, it would take 1.7 Earths to sustainably support the world’s population This year.
Not all countries experience an overshoot day. In Belgium, this day has already taken place on March 26 (!). This means that if the whole world consumed the same way as a Belgian, we would need 4.1 planets to satisfy our needs.
What limits?
This symbolic date is often criticized for its lack of scientific rigor. For some, that would be like comparing apples and pears. “The concept of ecological footprint effectively aggregates several types of pollution, explains Edwin Zaccaï, professor emeritus at the ULB and author of the book ‘Two degrees: Societies facing climate change’. When we are told, for example, that Belgium’s footprint has increased, we do not know if it has increased in terms of food, forests or CO2 emissions. The result does not make it possible to know exactly what has worsened, nor indeed what has improved.
Another limit: the calculation of the day of the overshoot only takes into account renewable resources. Thus, toxic products, for example, do not appear directly in the ecological footprint.
For Edwin Zaccai, this is not, however, to say that the day of the overshoot has no scientific value. “Simply, all indicators have their Limits. And here, we are faced with a macroscopic indicator. The people behind these calculations have chosen conventions, which one can discuss, but there is nothing fanciful. There’s a lot of work behind it.”
This concept is “interesting, but at the same time simplistic. The environmental problem is multifaceted, while the overrun focuses mainly on CO2 emissions”.
The economist Étienne de Callataÿ, for his part, considers this concept “interesting, but at the same time reducer. The environmental problem is multifaceted, while the overrun is mainly focused on CO2 emissions”. He thus pleads for a broader approach, particularly in terms of biodiversity, and for clear communication to the population. The idea of the global overshoot day, more or less around the middle of the year, could, according to him, give Belgians the impression that it would be enough to halve their consumption. “However, we know that, for the majority of Belgians, we must reduce by much more than half!”
“We know that we are beyond the capacity of the Earth. But what is interesting is that people can know their own impact via calculators.”
Useful anyway?
In any event, the day of the overshoot allows participate in environmental awareness, notes the economist. And made it possible to highlight the disproportionate burden that certain countries impose on the environment.
“Initially, and this was innovative at the time, this had the effect of showing that all of humanity does not respect the limits of the planet, and that this trend is getting worse. We have been able to see which countries have the greatest impact on the environment”, explains Edwin Zaccaï. Thus, so-called “rich” countries can effectively protect the environment inside, but not outside their borders, and therefore have a larger ecological footprint.
And today, what interest? “Every year, it’s the same message: we exceed the capacity of the Earth. We know it now. On the other hand, what is interesting is that people can know their own impact through calculators” Mobility, food… By answering targeted questions, it is indeed possible to discover the components of our ecological footprint. “Many people, including myself, have been enlightened by these calculations, which give an quite useful order of magnitude”, indicates the professor.
How did Overshoot Day evolve?
From the end of December in the early 1970s to September in 2000, the overshoot day increased steadily over time.
Over the past five years, the trend has stabilized, but is still far from reversing. To achieve the objective set by the IPCC to reduce carbon emissions by 43% by 2030, “it would be necessary move ‘overshoot day’ by 19 days a year for the next seven years“, specifies Global Foodprint Network.
What are the possible solutions?
According to the NGO, some “simple” changes could significantly move this date. Increasing global low-carbon electricity sources from 39% to 75% would shift it by 26 days, while halving food waste would save 13 more days.
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