This is how economists projected that, however, consider that the increase of 125 basis points takes rates to a contractionary terrain.
The central bank could continue to raise the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM), according to the latest market projections in the Financial Operators Survey of the issuing institute, where an adjustment of 125 basis points.
With this, the reference interest rate for the market would reach 5,25%, above the 5 points that were estimated at the end of 2021.
Among the experts, they emphasize that the current rate of 4% remain on neutral ground, and an adjustment of this magnitude would be considered “aggressive”, for taking it to a terrain of monetary contraction.
In this sense, the economist from the University of Santiago, Victor Salas leans more towards a setting of 100 basis points and added that this could stop the inflationary pressure.
“It is likely that the Central Bank will raise the Monetary Policy Rate directly to 5 points. It is a form of stop inflationary pressure It’s still going strong,” he added.
Expert projections for the Central Bank
On the other hand, the academic of the Faculty of Economics of the University of Chile, Alexander Alarcon is in line with market forecasts, given the persistence of inflation.
“The economy still shows signs of overheating and now the rise in the price of oil in international markets”, he argued.
The academic of the Faculty of Economics and Business of the Santo Tomás University, Fernando Mejido, warned that one of the factors that the Central Bank could consider is the new projections on the price of oil.
“On the one hand there is a higher demand per barrel of oil and the supply is restricted, what raises the price, He said.
He went on to say that: “This was not in the expectations of the markets, which should affect inflation projections by 2022″.
Estimates will be confirmed between January 25 and 26, dates on which the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Central Bank Council will be held.