Speaking on behalf of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly delivered a stern warning regarding the existential stakes of the Nile River, drawing a sharp line against unilateral actions by U.S.-backed Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Madbouly emphasized that the river is far more than a financial resource, calling it a vital lifeline deeply intertwined with the existence and historical development of Egyptian society.
The Diplomatic Battleground at the United Nations General Assembly
Addressing world leaders in New York, Madbouly affirmed that Egypt is prepared to take all legally recognized steps to safeguard its national interests. According to an official report from Egypt’s State Information Service, the prime minister stated that Cairo “reserves its legitimate right, guaranteed by the UN Charter and international law, to protect its water security and safeguard the existential assets of its people.”
While clarifying that Egypt does not oppose economic progress for neighboring nations, Madbouly stressed that “development must not come at the expense of harming others.” He called for shared water systems to foster peace rather than strife, rejecting unilateral measures and advocating for “cooperation, good neighborliness, and binding agreements in accordance with international law.”
Cairo’s firm stance unfolds as the United States deepens its security and commercial relationship with Ethiopia despite unresolved regional friction. Senior American and Ethiopian diplomatic officials recently met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to expand bilateral defense, trade, and economic initiatives across the Horn of Africa, according to Business Insider Africa.
The latest diplomatic friction follows the formal inauguration of the GERD in September 2025. It also arrives as new Ethiopian hydropower plans draw Somalia, Somaliland, Eritrea, and Gulf states deeper into the regional balance, transforming the Horn of Africa into an arena where Nile politics intersect with competition over Red Sea access, ports, and military partnerships, as reported by The Media Line.
Diverging Legal and Sovereign Frameworks on the Blue Nile
The core of the dispute remains the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam constructed on the Blue Nile. According to ScienceDirect, the Blue Nile is a “river that originates in the Ethiopian highlands and has a seasonal flow dependent on annual monsoons, with its principal source being Lake Tana. It contributes to the Nile River system and picks up water from seasonal tributaries along its course.”
While Cairo views the Nile River as an irreplaceable lifeline, supplying approximately 85% of the water reaching Egypt, Addis Ababa regards its mega-dam as crucial for “energy generation, industrialisation and economic sovereignty.”
Dr. Walid Kazziha, a political scientist at the American University in Cairo, described the latest phase as serious but still largely contained within diplomatic and legal channels. In an interview with The Media Line, Kazziha noted, “The Egyptian reaction is … limited to making statements [and] focusing on the legal violations that the Ethiopian action may involve under international law. There are no direct military tones to the Egyptian reaction.”
Egyptian warnings sharpened during the summer. On July 13, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty rejected reports of additional unilateral construction on the Blue Nile and said Egypt reserved “the right to legitimate self-defense in accordance with the rules of international law,” as detailed by The Media Line. An unnamed Egyptian government official told the state-run Middle East News Agency on Aug. 16 that Cairo had “several means at its disposal” to protect its Nile interests and would not permit any country to control the river’s flow to downstream states.
Addis Ababa Defends Development and Regional Sovereignty
Addis Ababa views the dispute through a fundamentally different political and legal lens. Dr. Gashaw Ayferam Endaylalu, a senior researcher specializing in Nile hydropolitics and hydropower development at Ethiopia’s Institute of Foreign Affairs, emphasized that Ethiopia considers development of the river a sovereign right and an economic necessity.
“From the Ethiopian perspective, Ethiopia has a sovereign right to utilize the water resource of the Nile,” Endaylalu told The Media Line. “Because Ethiopia is an agrarian-based economy, food security is the main problem for Ethiopia. Water scarcity is the main problem for Ethiopia. Energy scarcity or energy poverty is also the main problem.”
The disagreement extends beyond the technical operation of dams to encompass the legal and political framework governing the river. The Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement entered into force in October 2024 after six countries—Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda—ratified it, with South Sudan supplying the sixth ratification required for the treaty.
Meanwhile, a recent post by the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation asserted that Egypt maintains “the region’s worst water conservation practices” while expecting Ethiopians to live without basic power. As diplomatic pressure mounts and external powers expand their footprints across the region, both nations remain locked in a high-stakes contest over the future of the Nile basin.
