Products, uses, prices, regulations, innovation, so many ingredients that will make up the cocktail of electromobility in 2023. Here are our forecasts.
At the start of the new year, after a decade which has seen a new market really emerge, that of the electric car, and after this market has begun to find its audience in an increasingly massive way, the question is to know if we are already at a turning point.
The race against time is indeed engaged for car manufacturers and consumers, since the coming decade will see the accelerated decline of the thermal car, with the prospect of its ban by 2035.
All the manufacturers are now in battle order, and the years to come promise to be as hectic as they are exciting, in terms of marketing, but above all of innovation. With a new datum: technological progress will now have to be made not in an unbridled way but with respect for the environment, even with a certain sobriety. Will this be conducive to creativity or, on the contrary, harmful to innovation? The future will tell, and precisely, about the future, we have engaged in this little forecasting exercise for 2023.
An exercise that only engages us, and that you can complete, and of course come out at the end of the year to remind us that we were wrong about almost everything. Or not.
Here’s how we see 2023 in 10 predictions in the electric car sector.
A wave of new models
Ok, this is more of a forecast than a prediction, but it is the basis if one wants to get an idea of the market to come. The first edition of Watts d’Or had shown us that 20 new models (and around fifty if we counted all the versions) had arrived on the French market between October 2021 and September 2022, which is already massive. We bet it will be the same, and probably more, in 2023. Not to mention the most anticipated and high-profile ones, like the Hyundai Ioniq 6 or the very likely Tesla Cybertruck, which will all make headlines, we expect also to see the arrival of BMW, Chevrolet, Fisker, Polestar, Volvo, Lexus, VinFast, or even Ora. And I certainly forget some.
No small Tesla but a new Model 3
The fantasy – or the hope of a “small” Tesla Model 2 – presented for a few years by some as a certainty, does not seem to want to come true anytime soon, at least not for two or three years. Elon Musk had also dampened enthusiasm a few months ago by indicating that it was not yet a priority for the brand. We do believe that there will be nothing on that side in 2023. On the other hand, we persist in thinking that the Model 3 could experience a serious restyling this year, which would make it a kind of Version 2 like the Model S. And we are still betting on a revised dashboard, with the addition of an instrument cluster behind the steering wheel in addition to the central screen. Well ok, it may be a bit tight for 2023 but in this case we take bets for 2024.
The End of Tesla Supremacy
No, despite its stock price plummeting and the fact that Elon Musk seems to be spending more time trolling his new Twitter toy than caring for his first baby, we’re not going to predict the bankruptcy of You’re here. On the other hand, our credo has not changed: the Californian brand will gradually fall into line and its market share should eventually reach and stabilize around 20%. Whether it comes from China, the USA or Europe, the offer from other manufacturers is becoming more and more extensive, and their know-how is progressing by leaps and bounds. For each Tesla model there are today at least two or three credible alternatives (even if Tesla still remains ahead in terms of on-board technology and efficiency). Furthermore, as we anticipated two years ago, with the gradual opening of its Superchargers to other brands and the very rapid development of other charging networks, Tesla is gradually losing one of its main competitive advantages. Yes, except for a huge twist, Tesla is certainly still here for a long time, but will become a manufacturer “like the others”.
The end of the autonomous car
Behind this somewhat caricatural and probably exaggerated assertion, a reality. If a kind of consensus has been established on the fact that the level 2 autonomous car is a validated and relatively trivialized step, the manufacturers – and the legislator, especially in Europe – seem to be struggling to move to the next level, as the complexity seems at this point become exponential. A telltale sign: after Germany in 2020it’s California, yet Tesla’s native land, which prohibits the manufacturer – and for others as well – to use the term “totally autonomous driving”. In fact, on paper, many manufacturers claim to have mastered level 3 and beyond, but in reality it seems that everyone, including customers, is content with the current level, and that the promise of fully autonomous car will not be realized for several decades. Maybe not because of the technological complexity, but probably more because… nobody cares, and it’s not a sales pitch anymore. A kind of “3D syndrome”, a technology which swept over all television sets ten years ago as the unavoidable thing of the future, and which has completely disappeared today due to a lack of public support, and because that it brought nothing, except discomfort and stress.
Prices won’t drop
After having really believed in an upcoming drop in electricity prices, according to a logical movement experienced by all technological innovations affecting the general public, we will have to get used to the idea that this will certainly not be the case. , in any case in the short term, so not in 2023. Admittedly, there were signs that this was eventually happening, especially with the release of the MG4, which, we thought, opened the way for many competitors. But no, in fact, the trend is even rather upward, including for the above named. And apart from a few very time-limited promotions, the prices of electric cars will remain high, including those of Chinese manufacturers, which seem to confirm that they are focusing on the medium and high end. Electric cars are not smartphones, and contrary to what we know on this market, there will not be a range of prices that can go from simple to tenfold for practically the same services, such as what we can know between a low cost Android and an iPhone 14 Pro Max.
The SUV fair will continue
Either the Automobile Propre readership is not representative of the general public, or the precision of the manufacturers’ market studies leaves something to be desired. Still, reading the comments here and in the forum, the gap has never seemed so big between your aspirations and what the brands offer. If around here SUVs are shouted down by most, the exact opposite is happening on the market, where practically no new electric car is not an SUV or a crossover. If we have fun looking at the latest novelties or even the 20 cars nominated for the Watts d’Or 2022, we see that an overwhelming majority of models are made up of SUVs (14 cars out of 20 nominated were SUVs or crossover). Love it or hate it, I think we’ll have to get used to it for a few more years, even if the table of best EV sales in France in 2022 seems to contradict this assertion, but more for financial reasons, the cheapest cars often being the most sought after, whatever their format, in this case small city cars.
Strong growth in destination charging
In addition to the large networks which are now developing at a rapid pace on the main roads, with the addition of new players such as Engie in motorway service areas, many private players will complete the charging offer. This is the case for hotels, which are already a very good alternative by equipping their car parks with charging stations, which already represents several thousand charging points at destination on French territory, and probably tens of thousands European scale. The evolution that we will probably see in the coming year, then the following ones, will consist of a generalization and an extension of this service to all categories of establishments, and not only the top of the range. The two-star hotels, and even the economy categories, will massively equip themselves, but not only. We anticipate an explosion of supply in places of leisure stays such as campsites or resorts. In fact, what happened with TV and Canal Plus in the 90s or WiFi in the 2000s is going to happen with charging stations in the hotel industry: first a distinctive and often paying service reserved for top-of-the-range, then an extension to all categories, and for some, free as a selling point.
Charging will start to pay off
With the strong growth in the number of new electric car registrations, the demand for charging points is mechanically increasing, and becoming more recurrent, which will gradually smooth the activity of charging stations, and therefore their profitability. Some operators are already indicating off-line that they see profitability looming in the short term, and we are in a market that is not yet saturated, and where supply favors demand. So certainly, the pressure of competition is starting to be strong, and this translates into contained prices, which is favorable to electric motorists, but the enormous investments made could start to bear their first fruits as early as 2023.
Take-off of the second-hand market
Although it remains relatively confidential due to a still limited supply, the second-hand electric car market should increase inexorably in the coming years, and we are betting on a first boost in 2023. Why? Because the first wave of cars bought 5 to 7 years ago will arrive on the second-hand market, and given the regulatory pressure and the still high prices for new cars, many customers could turn to a first electric vehicle second hand. There remains the issue of concerns about battery longevity, but specialists like Greenmove have placed themselves in this promising niche with, in particular, offers aimed at reassuring on this point.
The radicalization of anti-car sentiment will also affect electric cars
Ecology, fears linked to global warming, energy sobriety, energy crisis, conflicts… So many subjects which crystallize fears and encourage extreme behavior and conflict situations, with the corollary of a sort of focus on the automobile, and the symbol of the absolute evil to be fought that this one represents for some. Did you think that the electric car would be spared this vindictiveness of political environmentalism? Do not dream, if until now it has benefited from a certain “state of grace”, it will end up going through it like the others, because the leitmotif of this radicalized fraction of the population is quite simply to eradicate the automobile. of the planet, then, probably, any individual means of transport other than the bicycle (or shoes). If you feel virtuous driving electric, tell yourself that for an activist of Last Renovation, you are part of the problem, and that you too will be entitled to a deflation in order. It should start in 2023, you will see.
In conclusion
This editorial direct from our crystal ball allows us to understand and examine the topics that are at the forefront of the electromobility sector today, for better and for worse. We could also have mentioned innovation from young companies that focus on a service (charging, battery optimization, route planning, etc.) or talk about retrofitting, but the subject is vast and certain trends are still difficult to anticipate. . See you at the end of the year, where we will bring out this article to debrief it point by point.
In the meantime, a very happy new year to all!