2024-01-08 02:30:00
“Tariff Man 2” or the return of the “tariff man”. This is not a blockbuster from Marvel Studios, but a remake of an already proven political scenario: the election of Donald Trump as head of the United States for a second term. On the economic front, his victory would once again be placed under the sign of the trade war, as suggested by the nickname he has given himself.
This crucial election is far from over, but given Joe Biden’s weakness in the polls and the probable Republican inauguration of Donald Trump, the hypothesis of the latter’s return to the White House is possible. Starting to think about what a second term could be might be helpful.
Beyond the political implications for the future of American democracy, three years after the assault on the Capitol, and the geopolitical implications for the stability of the planet, a victory for Donald Trump would, on the economic level, take on the appearance of already -seen, worse. The main proposal at this stage is to impose 10% tariffs on all products imported into the United States. This would amount to multiplying by three on average the level currently applied.
The measures taken by Donald Trump during his first term and which, for the most part, have not been called into question by his successor, are nothing compared to what would happen in the event of victory. This time, the trade war would be generalized with serious repercussions both for the United States but also for the entire world economy.
No jump from the curves
The same causes producing the same effects, Trumpist logic has little chance of achieving better results than those obtained thanks to the policy pursued from 2018. His frenzy consisting of increasing customs duties, supposedly to protect the American economy, has generated damage without responding to the problems it claimed to solve. It is not by tripling the stake that the recipe will work better.
The increase in customs duties is supposed to achieve three objectives. It is about reducing the abysmal trade deficit of the United States, encouraging hiring through industrial relocations and restoring balance in the face of an organization of the world economy of which the United States would be the main victim.
Concerning the trade balance, the failure is obvious: under the mandate of Donald Trump, the deficit increased by a quarter! The growth of jobs in industry is very real, but it is not spectacular and is part of a long-term trend of reindustrialization that began under Barack Obama. The Trump parenthesis did not cause any jump in the statistical curves.
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