For RTE, the manager of the electricity network in France, energy savings are mandatory to avoid power cuts… which are among the scenarios that can be envisaged for this winter like no other.
This week, the operator RTE presented its electricity supply forecasts for this winter in France. Several scenarios were put on the table. “Extreme situations are not the most likely” nevertheless specified the chairman of the RTE board, Xavier Piechaczyk. But faced with an unprecedented situation, early cuts are almost inevitable, especially if the energy saving objectives are not met. Calls for energy sobriety will therefore multiply in the coming weeks.
Invited to BFM Business on Thursday, Thomas Veyrenc, executive director in charge of the strategy, forecasting and evaluation division of RTE, spoke about the different scenarios. And he hammered it home, it will absolutely be necessary to save energy to deal with the disruption of Russian gas supplies.
No blackout this winter but possible cuts
But RTE wants to be reassuring, however, there will be no blackout this winter in France. And, in the event of a mild winter, with no shortage of gas with guaranteed energy restraint, there will be no cuts at all.
On the other hand, RTE is pessimistic in the event of a colder winter and a shortage of gas. In these scenarios, no doubt, there will necessarily be “early” cuts, especially if the energy sobriety objectives are not met.
The government is thus counting on a drop in household and business consumption of 10%. A high goal that could protect the French from cuts. RTE estimates for its part that the cuts will be avoided “by lowering national consumption by 1 to 5% in the majority of cases, and up to 15% in the most extreme weather situations”.
Targeted and limited load shedding
Conversely, what forms would these cuts take? For RTE, they would be limited, probably to “two hours a day”, in “targeted areas”. In any case, they will not concern the whole country at the same time. This is what the operator calls programmed load shedding.
To avoid these power cuts, RTE will rely on the EcoWatt online tool which will warn the French of a risk of power cuts and which will therefore call on them to moderate their consumption in order to pass the course. This had been the case several times last winter.
For the coming winter, RTE has extended its network monitoring period from October 15 to April 15. During these six months, the Electricity Transmission Network will call on consumers to be sober, especially at the most crucial times: in the morning between 8 a.m. and 1 p.m., and in the evening between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m.
RTE advice
Limiting electric heating to 19°C, optimized use of lighting and reasonable use of cooking appliances (oven, microwave or induction hob) will be the main levers of energy sobriety. Without major and massive changes to these main levers, the risk of cuts will only be higher.