Irregular border crossings into the European Union dropped by nearly a third during the first nine months of 2026, totaling just over 91,000 detections, according to preliminary data published by Frontex, Medias24 reported. Shifting maritime routes and intensified preventive measures have reshaped migration patterns across the Mediterranean and Atlantic corridors, even as overall numbers declined.
Shifting Migration Routes and Western African Declines
The Western African route connecting Moroccan and Sahelian coasts to the Canary Islands saw a 45% decrease during the first nine months of 2026, dropping to approximately 7,100 detections according to Medias24. Preventive measures implemented by Mauritania, Senegal, and Gambia in cooperation with Spain and the EU contributed to reducing departures. However, the migratory flow remains unstable, with detections in September surging to roughly 1,900—four times higher than in August—driven by departures from Morocco and Gambia.
Similarly, the International Organization for Migration noted a close correlation in regional trends, recording a drop in maritime arrivals from West Africa during the first half of the year as reported by UN News. Despite fewer arrivals on certain paths, enforcement measures in Morocco, Mauritania, and Senegal have pushed departures further south toward Gambia, Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau, lengthening voyages by up to 750 kilometers.
Western Mediterranean Increases and Algerian Departures
In contrast to the broader downward trend, the Western Mediterranean route registered around 18,300 detections, marking a 26% increase over the previous year according to Medias24. Algeria remains the primary country of departure for maritime crossings toward the Balearic Islands and mainland Spain, with Algerian nationals forming the top recorded nationality ahead of Malians and Moroccans.
September Rebound and Future Outlook
In September 2026, about 14,300 border crossings were detected across the EU, representing a 28% decline compared to September 2025, but an 11% increase over August due to improved weather conditions along primary maritime corridors noted LaPresse. This period also coincided with the first full summer operating under the European Pact on Migration and Asylum. Sur la plupart des routes vers l’Europe, le nombre de personnes qui entreprennent le voyage est en baisse, une tendance confirmée tout au long de l’été et de l’automne. Toutefois, la situation peut évoluer rapidement : en septembre, sur la route atlantique vers les îles Canaries, les détections ont été quatre fois plus nombreuses qu’en août. Les réseaux de passeurs ne disparaissent pas lorsque les chiffres diminuent ; ils se déplacent et attendent une occasion. Notre mission est d’être prêts lorsqu’ils en trouvent une
, stated Frontex Executive Director Hans Leijtens.
