2023-09-09 18:54:39
Old Men’s Club
The world’s largest economies are increasingly being ruled by older men who are staying in office for longer and longer. What does this mean for democracy?
World Bank boss Ajay Banga, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and US President Joe Biden at the G-20 summit in India (September 9, 2023).
Photo: Evan Vucci (AFP)
The host in the middle, the guests lined up around it, a colorful sea of flags in the background: This is what the class photos that are taken every year at the meeting of the 20 most powerful economic nations look like.
The photos convey consistency. And in fact, the same people are regularly seen there: heads of state and government such as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan or Saudi King Salman, who have been in office for what feels like an eternity – and who are all getting older and older.
An analysis of data on all G-20 heads of state and government over the last fifteen years confirms this impression. When the G-20 first met in Washington DC in November 2008, the political leaders were on average almost 60 years old. The club of mostly male heads of state and government has now noticeably aged. The average age of G-20 leaders is currently: 65 years.
Joe Biden is one of the political veterans present at the current G-20 summit in Delhi. At 81, the American president is only the second oldest head of state and government in the group. Saudi King Salman is even older at 88 years old. However, he will be represented at the G-20 meeting in India by Crown Prince Mohammed.
Lula da Silva is third in the age rankings. The Brazilian politician, who was re-elected president last year after a twelve-year break, is 78. He is followed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aged 73, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, aged 71.
Because the latter has become persona non grata because of the attack on Ukraine, he is not taking part in the summit in person – Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is traveling to Delhi. However, at 73, he has long since reached normal retirement age.
There are many pensioners among the G-20 leaders
A total of 9 out of 21 heads of state and government in the G-20 (there are 21 because the European Union has two formal heads with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel) are over seventy years old. That’s more than ever before. For comparison: at the 2008 summit, only three heads of state and government had reached their 70th birthday.
Conversely, only five heads of state and government of the G-20 countries are currently younger than 60 years old. Almost all of them come from Europe: Rishi Sunak (Great Britain, 43), Emmanuel Macron (France, 46), Georgia Meloni (Italy, 47). That was also different in the past: fifteen years ago in Washington there were still twelve people among the G-20 heads of state and government under 60.
The aging of the G-20 has become more pronounced since the mid-2010s. Statistically, it can be attributed to two effects.
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The heads of state and government take office at a later point in their lives. The most famous example of this is Joe Biden. He was only sworn in at the age of 78.
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The heads of state and government stay in office longer. An example of this is Xi Jinping, who began his third term in office in March and has ambitions to remain in power for a long time.
Both effects have contributed similarly to the fact that the average age in the club of G-20 leaders has risen by around five years since 2008. And both effects are worrying from a democratic policy perspective.
The generation gap is growing
If heads of state and government are getting older when they take office, this will be at the expense of demographic representation.
For example, in the United States the median age of the population is almost 39 years old, that of the voters at about 50 years. At 81 years old, President Biden is not particularly close to many Americans simply because of his age and the associated social and economic situation. This generational contrast is even more pronounced in poorer countries such as India or Indonesia, whose populations are significantly younger.
The fact that politically polarized countries like the USA can only agree on people of advanced retirement age is not a good sign. After all: Biden has achieved a lot with his investment agenda in both economic and environmental policy – more than one might have expected of him given his age.
People around the world are living longer and longer, and many people remain fit even as they get older. As a result of demographic change, it is to a certain extent natural that the G-20 leaders are also getting older.
Over the past fifteen years, the median age of the population in emerging countries has been approximately as follows Saudi Arabia and China increased by five years each. That doesn’t justify the fact that in these countries there are management personnel in their seventies or eighties at the controls. But statistically speaking, it does matter for the G-20’s aging Rolle.
The US President is 81 years old – making him the second oldest head of state and government in the club of G-20 countries.
Photo: Keystone
Autocrats cling to power
There is no natural explanation for the second change: that heads of state and government are staying in office for longer and longer. Rather, it is a sign that democracy is not at its best in many countries.
Authoritarian systems have been gaining strength around the globe for several years. According to the organization Freedom House, the quality of democracy has continuously increased in more countries since 2006 worsened than improved. Those in power take action against the judiciary, the media, the opposition and independent electoral authorities in order to eliminate political competitors and secure their status.
A good example of this is Russia. According to the statistics above, President Putin has been in office for eleven years. The information refers to his election in 2012. Compared to the other G-20 leaders, this is already quite a long time.
However, Putin was already president from 2000 to 2008 – after which he served as prime minister for four years, while Dmitri Medvedev held the pro forma presidential post before Putin took over this office again.
In fact, Russia has been ruled by Putin for 23 years. That’s a very long time. The Russian ruler has used it to significantly restrict political freedom in his country. His political opponents are either dead or imprisoned under flimsy pretexts.
Political freedom has also suffered in Turkey. In the narrower sense, President Erdogan has been head of state there since 2014. But before that he had been in power as Prime Minister since 2003. If you add the two eras together, you get over 20 years in which he remained at the top.
Age does not protect against stupidity
The aging of the G-20 leaders may be a transitional phenomenon. At some point, Biden and Putin will inevitably give up their positions – it is quite possible that younger staff will then take over, which in turn will lower the average age of heads of state and government.
Until then, however, the seniors remain responsible: they must find answers to the pressing questions of the international community. It is to be hoped that they will demonstrate special age-wise wisdom.
Unfortunately, the current geopolitical tensions, largely caused by the older generation of political leaders, do not indicate this.
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