T he year that the price of European natural gas has lived has been a heart attack. The price of the energy resource suffered from the energy crisis that caused the start of the war in Ukraine, with rises that reached more than 380% for European gas, which reached $339 per MW/h in August. With this revaluation, it seemed impossible for the price not to end the year well above the levels of January 2021.
Yet that is how it has been: since August, the energy resource has deflated rapidly, and ends the year at 72 dollars, with an annual balance of just 2.5%. The fear of an economic recession, in addition to a warmer winter than usual, which has meant that demand is not as strong as expected, has ended up deflating the prices of a raw material that culminates a year 2022 that has been a roller coaster.
Now, gas inventories end the year in Europe practically full, and in the United States at levels very similar to those of the average for the last five years, barely 2.7% below.
The year of oil has been similar, with the Brent beginning the year at 77.7 dollars, reaching the 128 dollars in March, and subsequently deflating until ending at 84 dollars per barrel. At these prices, European crude oil will already be a net contributor to generating disinflation in the euro zone during the month of January, taking into account that the average price of a barrel during the first month of 2022 was 85 dollars.
China boosts food
Undoubtedly, raw materials related to food have been one of the great protagonists and winners of this 2022, especially as a result of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, since, as the latter -one of the main producers of wheat- was left out of the market, corn and barley worldwide–, the prices of these foods began to climb.
The Chinese reopening was also great news for food commodities. Since the Chinese government reported in October that it would gradually relax its strict Covid-zero policy and reopen the country to the rest of the world, the prices of futures contracts for these materials have rebounded. Thus, it is understood that among the 10 subjects that earn the most in 2022, six belong to food, among which are orange juice or riceamong other.
This orange juice was one of the great beneficiaries of the Chinese reopening. “The Ministry of Agriculture of Brazil [el mayor productor mundial de naranjas y zumo de naranja] confirmed that five Cutrale facilities in the state of Sao Paulo received authorization to export citrus pulp [se emplea para la alimentación de animales, horneado o aceites esenciales, entre otros usos] to China”, they pointed out in November from Bloomberg. Thus, this raw material is made in the year with increases of close to 29%, the food raw material that earns the most in this basket.
For his part, riceof which China is the main consumer worldwide, something more than 20% is recorded since the first of January and thanks to the opening of the Asian giant, this matter also recovered its best stock market flavor. In the month of November, in fact, those of Indonesia were added to the decisions of the Asian giant. as reported Bloombergthe country is carrying out its first rice imports, of 500,000 tons, since 2018.
Other of the food raw materials that earn the most in 2022 are bean oil, corn or live cattle, which are revalued by 17%, 14% and 13% respectively.