2023-11-09 18:15:01
By Le Figaro with AFP
Published 2 hours ago, Updated 2 hours ago
World production will still decrease from 783 to 781 million tonnes. Thierry RYO / stock.adobe.com
The American Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised upwards on Thursday its estimate of the world supply of wheat for the current campaign, due to more abundant stocks even if production will decline a little except in Russia.
In its monthly report on the state of global supply and demand (Wasde report), the USDA now expects a global harvest of 781.98 million tonnes, compared to 783.43 in the previous estimate. This reduction in production of 1.5 million tonnes is due in particular to a smaller harvest forecast in India (-3 million tonnes), Argentina (-1.5 million) and Brazil (-0.4 million) in particular. . But this decline is offset by an increase of 5 million tonnes in the assessment of Russian production which will reach 90 million tonnes, according to the USDA. Ukraine’s wheat production is seen stable at 22.50 million tonnes, of which the country is expected to export 12 million, one million more than in the previous estimate.
Read alsoSlight rebound in the price of wheat in Europe, weak echo from the Middle East
Ukrainian production on the rise
The slight decline in world wheat production is offset by more abundant stocks, at 269.55 million tonnes (+2 million). These figures, generally showing a more abundant supply, continued to bring down wheat prices, which were already depressed at the opening. Around 5:40 p.m. GMT, the price of the reference contract for a bushel (around 27 kg) of SRW variety wheat (Soft Red Winter Wheat) lost 2.28% to $5.78. For corn, the American ministry’s forecast calls for an increase in world production to 1,220.79 million tonnes compared to 1,214 million estimated in October. The estimate increased for Russia (16 million tonnes against 14.6) but also for Ukraine with 29.50 million tonnes, against 28 million previously forecast. Ukraine should be able to export 20 million tonnes of corn compared to 19.50 million tonnes previously estimated.
Mexico, on the other hand, saw its production drop by almost a million tonnes to 26.50 million. For soybeans, global production is expected to exceed 400 million tonnes, up almost a million tonnes from the October estimate, and well above the campaigns of the last two years. American production in particular should be higher, at 112.39 million tonnes compared to 111.70 million. That of Brazil, the leading oilseed producer, is still forecast at 163 million tonnes.
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