2023-09-26 05:32:00
Gwangju Chamber of Commerce’s business outlook index for the fourth quarter was recorded at 88.
Causes such as decreased production and consumption and increased volatility of raw materials
Gwangju region manufacturing business survey index (BSI) performance and forecast trends. Provided by Gwangju Prize
The perceived economic index of manufacturers in the Gwangju region has fallen below the standard (100) for eight consecutive quarters, showing that they are not recovering from the recession.
The Gwangju Chamber of Commerce announced on the 26th that as a result of a survey of the ‘2023 4th quarter business outlook index’ targeting 121 manufacturers in the Gwangju area, the BSI (Business Survey Index, standard = 100) was calculated to be 88.
This is interpreted to be due to a decline in production and consumption, a slump in the global manufacturing industry, increased raw material volatility, prolonged high prices, and limited prospects for a recovery in the perceived economic recovery of local manufacturers in the second half of the year, despite growing expectations for improvement in the global economy due to the easing of monetary tightening policies in major countries.
The outlook for the fourth quarter by industry was that the ‘glass/non-metallic minerals (129)’ and ‘IT/electrical/home appliances (100)’ industries were expected to see economic improvement, but the ‘recession’ for other industries was expected to continue.
The ‘glass and non-metallic minerals (129)’ industry expected sales to increase due to expectations of improved business conditions and increased orders despite the rise in raw material prices, while the ‘IT, electricity and electronics (100)’ industry expected sales to increase due to the launch of premium and customized new products. He continued to have a positive outlook, anticipating .
On the other hand, the ‘food and beverage (82)’ industry had a negative outlook on the economy due to an increase in sales prices due to an increase in fixed costs, and the ‘rubber and chemical (60)’ industry had a negative economic outlook as the profit structure was expected to deteriorate due to continued high interest rates and a surge in energy prices. It was predicted that there would be no recovery.
The ‘steel and metal processing (92)’ and ‘machinery and mold (71)’ industries predicted an economic downturn as sales were expected to decline due to a decrease in orders from suppliers due to the economic downturn and increased losses due to rising raw material prices. It is predicted that the ‘automotive and parts (83)’ industry will have limited economic recovery in the second half of the year due to a decrease in demand due to the global economic downturn and a decrease in operating profit due to competition between industries for discounts on new car prices.
By company size, ‘large companies (80)’ and ‘small and medium-sized companies (89)’ predicted that the economic deterioration would continue due to sluggish domestic demand and internal and external economic downturns.
By export size, export companies (116) had a positive outlook for the fourth quarter due to expectations of increased demand and orders due to the recovery of global economic growth in the second half of the year, but domestic companies (83) had a negative outlook due to lower profitability due to continued high inflation and high interest rates. .
When asked about whether it would be possible to achieve the operating profit target for this year compared to the target set at the beginning of the year for local manufacturers, the questions were ‘below the target level (57.9%)’, ‘achieved the target level (37.1%)’, and ‘exceeded the target level (5.0%). )’, they responded in that order.
The most common reason for answering ‘lower than target level’ was ‘slow domestic sales (48.6%)’, followed by ‘decrease in exports due to economic slowdown in overseas markets (35.7%)’ and ‘financing costs such as high interest rates’. This was followed by ‘increase (5.7%)’, ‘disruption in supply and demand of raw materials (4.3)’, ‘increasing exchange rate and oil price volatility (2.9%)’, and ‘others (2.8%)’. In addition, most companies responded that the outlook for the second half of each item, including facility investment, R&D, and export performance, would be ‘similar to the first half.’
Executive Vice Chairman Choi Jong-man said, “It is expected that the economic performance of local manufacturers will worsen in the second half of the year due to rising production costs, increased energy price volatility, and high inflation,” adding, “We will stabilize raw materials to respond to uncertainties in the global economy and support improved taxation.” “It is necessary to prepare special measures and support measures at the government level, such as export financing and support for logistics costs,” he said.
Reporter Hank Kyung-guk [email protected]
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