The household confidence index (ICM) stood at 47.4 points instead of 50.1 points recorded the previous quarter and 65.5 points a year earlier. The decline in the level of household confidence during this quarter stems from the deterioration of all the indicators that make it up, both in relation to the previous quarter and in relation to the same quarter of last year.
The results of the permanent household economic survey, conducted by the HCP, show that in the third quarter of 2022, the morale of Moroccans continues its downward trend to reach its lowest level since the start of the survey in 2008.
Felt by households of a sharp deterioration in living standards
In the third quarter of 2022, 81.5% of households report a deterioration in the standard of living over the past 12 months, 11.6% maintaining it at the same level and 6.9% an improvement. The balance of opinion on the past evolution of the standard of living remained negative, at minus 74.6 points, against minus 73.0 points in the previous quarter and minus 41.5 points in the same quarter of last year.
Over the next 12 months, 49.8% of households expect the standard of living to deteriorate, 41.9% to remain at the same level and 8.3% to improve. The balance of opinion on this indicator stands at minus 41.5 points, thus recording a deterioration both compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same quarter of the previous year when it was at minus 34.3 points and at 9.3 points respectively.
Expectation of a sharp rise in unemployment
In the third quarter of 2022, the proportion of households who expect unemployment to rise over the next 12 months reaches 87.5% compared to 4.0% who expect a fall. The balance of opinion thus remained negative at minus 83.5 points, recording its lowest level since the start of the survey in 2008, against minus 81.1 points a quarter earlier and minus 78.3 points a year earlier. .
A situation perceived as unfavorable to the purchase of durable goods
In the third quarter of 2022, 82.1% compared to 8.1% of households consider that the time is not right to make purchases of durable goods. The balance of opinion of this indicator remained negative with minus 74.0 points, recording a deterioration both compared to the previous quarter and compared to the same quarter of the previous year when it settled at minus 69.1 points. and minus 62.0 points respectively.
A constantly deteriorating perceived financial situation
In the third quarter of 2022, 53.5% of households believe that their income covers their expenses, 43.7% say they are in debt or dip into their savings and 2.8% say they save part of their income. The balance of opinion on the current financial situation of households thus remained negative, at minus 40.9 points against minus 42.8 points the previous quarter and minus 36.4 points a year earlier. As for the evolution of their financial situation over the last 12 months, 52.9% against 5.2% of households consider that it has deteriorated. This perception thus remains negative, with a balance of opinion of minus 47.7 points against minus 48.7 points in the previous quarter and minus 48.0 points in the same quarter of last year. Regarding the evolution of their financial situation over the next 12 months, 16.5% against 22.4% of households expect an improvement in their financial situation. The balance of opinion for this indicator thus stood at minus 5.9 points against minus 0.1 points in the previous quarter and 15.1 points in the same quarter of the previous year.
The HCP also presents household perceptions of other aspects of living conditions:
- More pessimistic perception of the future ability of households to save
In the third quarter of 2022, 11.0% versus 89.0% of households expect to save over the next 12 months. The balance of opinion on this indicator remained negative, at minus 78.0 points instead of minus 77.3 points in the previous quarter and minus 70.4 points in the same quarter of last year.
- Feeling of the increase in food prices by all households
In the third quarter of 2022, 99.1% of households report that food prices have increased over the past 12 months. The balance of opinion for this indicator stood at minus 99.1 points, stagnant compared to the previous quarter (minus 99.1 points) and clearly deteriorating compared to the same quarter of the previous year (minus 86.9 points). Over the next 12 months, food prices should continue to rise according to 76.4% of households against only 2.8% who expect them to fall. The balance of opinion thus remained negative, standing at minus 73.6 points, instead of minus 74.3 points recorded a quarter earlier and minus 70.9 points a year earlier.