California is preparing for a winter of simultaneous floods, fires, and extreme storms as a strengthening El Niño continues to strengthen, theguardian.com reported. Prior to this year, a September coastal flood advisory had never been put out by the US National Weather Service for the San Francisco Bay Area. In the past month, it has had to issue two.
A Historic Pacific Pattern Alarms Forecasters
With flood water swallowing intersections and eroding beaches up and down the California coast last week, emergency managers and scientists warned that this is just an early signal of a coming tumultuous winter. An already exceptional El Niño continues to strengthen, earning labels ranging from “super” to “Godzilla” as forecasters track conditions brewing in the Pacific Ocean.
According to the latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), computer models indicate there is a greater than 90% likelihood that this El Niño will be “very strong”, alongside roughly a 75% chance of it becoming historic. Severe storms, landslides, and destructive high tides are on the menu, and they could happen all at once.
By February, more than 450,000 people globally could potentially perish from temperature spikes associated with the robust El Niño, climate scientists project. Further deaths will stem from floods, droughts, wildfires, and relentless rain, while tens of millions face potential food insecurity.
State and Local Governments Rush to Reinforce Vulnerable Coasts
California Governor Gavin Newsom issued a state of emergency on 21 September to mobilise efforts and resources. Preparations are under way across all levels of government to secure vital infrastructure, preset response resources, and inform the public of incoming hazards.
State climatologist Michael Anderson stated that the impacts of El Niño will stack an extra foot of sea level rise onto California on top of the 8 to 12 inches driven by climate change over the past century. In Long Beach, crews have lined the seawall with large sandbags to reinforce spots where strong surf has burst through. Along the Orange County coastline, about 528,000 cubic metres (690,000 cubic yards) of sand is being moved into place, while personnel go door-to-door in San Diego’s flood zones.
Debris flow risks are elevated across recent wildfire burn scars, which include the Los Angeles neighbourhoods devastated by the 2025 firestorm as well as the Big Sur slopes that burned this summer. Officials note it typically takes five years for watersheds and hillsides to heal enough to withstand strong storms.
Juggling the Hydrological Spectrum From Floods to Firestorms
Los Angeles County public works director Mark Pestrella stated that flood control systems are ready and have been optimised during a recent briefing. However, he noted that the systems are only designed to withstand a so-called “100-year event,” which carry a 1% chance of occurring in any given year.
Meanwhile, high heat and fire risks likely to linger into November are hazards on the opposite side of the hydrological spectrum that Kevin McGowan, director of the Los Angeles Office of Emergency Management, must manage simultaneously. “We are in the middle of fire season and about to head into a significant heatwave,” McGowan said ahead of an October weekend that smashed several records across Southern California. “People should continue to prepare not just for one hazard – but all hazards.”
Because of staff and resource reductions implemented by the Trump administration, experts caution that the US faces this high-risk winter with diminished preparation and response capabilities for extreme events at the federal level. Monica Medina, who served as the principal deputy administrator of Noaa during the Obama administration, voiced deep concern over the readiness of agencies like Noaa and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema).
Medina said that agencies, particularly Noaa and Fema, were already stretched due to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. She expressed worry about the potential for loss of life and the nation’s inability to be protected, noting that, “If this is a real test,” of a hotter, more precarious future, “we’re going to flunk.”
As communities brace for the convergence of high surf, saturated hillsides, and lingering wildfire threats, local emergency networks face a test of their resilience.
